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This story was produced in partnership with the University of Wisconsin-Madison’s Investigative Journalism class taught in the School of Journalism and Mass Communication.

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• The state reported five deaths from people falling through the ice on Wisconsin lakes last winter, compared with seven over the previous five years.

• There were 10 Madison lake rescues the previous two winters (plus another one in the last week of December 2025) after only one in 2023.

• More dangerous ice conditions are having a negative effect on businesses and tourism.

When Alec Hembree fell through the ice on Lake Wingra last winter, he remembered, “it was instantaneous.”

It was just after dark on Jan. 20. The temperature was around 2 degrees. Hembree was riding his bike across the frozen lake from his work on Madison’s east side to his home on the west side, a commute he had tried successfully for the first time the previous week. When he fell in, his feet couldn’t touch the bottom. He barely had time to be scared.

“I think there were a couple people on the lake,” Hembree said. “They wouldn’t have been able to get to me before I got out.”

The air was so cold, Hembree’s leather gloves immediately froze to the icy surface of the lake when he tried to pull himself out. After about 30 seconds in the water, he was able to pull himself and his bike out. It all happened so fast, he wasn’t sure how he did it. He thinks his training from being an Eagle Scout helped. 

“Everything was in an ice shell at that point,” he said. He biked 10 minutes to a co-worker’s house, where he used a hair dryer to thaw his jacket zipper and get out of his frozen clothes before his co-worker gave him a ride home.

Hembree’s experience is becoming more common on Wisconsin’s lakes. For some, falls prove deadly. The Department of Natural Resources last winter recorded five people statewide who died falling through the ice on off-highway vehicles across the state. Between 2020 and 2024, similar accidents accounted for a total of seven deaths.

According to the Madison Fire Department, the Lake Rescue Team was dispatched four times to rescue people who fell through the ice this past winter and six times the previous winter, though only once in 2023. Through the end of last winter, the department had responded to 39 incidents of people falling through the ice since 2016. On Dec. 27 (as this story was being finalized for publication) the department rescued another individual who had fallen through the ice on Lake Mendota.

But those are only the incidents where the Lake Rescue Team was dispatched, so the stories of Hembree and others who fell through the ice and managed to escape aren’t included.

“This (past) year has probably been one of the more dangerous years on ice that I can remember,” said Lt. Jacob Holsclaw, the Wisconsin DNR’s off-highway vehicle administrator.

Treading on Wisconsin’s frozen lakes has gotten more dangerous, creating cost for taxpayers and business owners and calling into question the future of an important state pastime.

A growing trend

Trekking on Dane County’s frozen lakes is a common winter activity for southern Wisconsin residents.

“Walking on frozen lakes” was the most common activity on the lakes among respondents to a 2010 Dane County Land & Water Resources Department survey. At 28%, that was more common than swimming, kayaking, boating, or fishing from a boat or pier. Other ice-related activities such as skating and fishing were more popular than water skiing, jet skiing and sailing. The study authors estimated that close to 110,000 Dane County residents — more than a fifth of the population — walked on the county’s frozen water bodies at least once in 2010.

The heavy usage of the frozen lakes provides a revenue stream for numerous Dane County businesses and nonprofits. For example, the Clean Lakes Alliance hosts the annual Frozen Assets Festival, in which hundreds of participants take part in a fundraising 5K on frozen Lake Mendota and others enjoy scientific demonstrations, ice skating, kiting, boating and other ice-related activities.

But the future of frozen recreation in Dane County is in peril. Madison winters are getting shorter and less predictable. And falls through the ice are becoming more common.

Ron Blumer, a Madison Fire Department division chief who heads the department’s Lake Rescue Team and has been with the city since 1995, said in recent years his team has conducted “a lot more responses” to calls to rescue people who fell through the ice.

Part of the uptick can be attributed to climate change and the shrinking number of days of 100% ice cover on the Yahara lakes. Since 1855, when the Wisconsin State Climatology Office began consistently tracking Lake Mendota’s freezing and thawing dates, the lake has stayed frozen for an average of 102 days every winter. But only in four of the last 25 years has Mendota been frozen that long. During the 2023-24 winter, the lake was frozen for 44 days — a more than 20-year low. Last winter it froze for 69 days.

There’s no ‘safe’ ice

While information about how thick ice should be for walking or driving varies between sources, there is some consensus: No ice is ever completely safe.

“We really shy away from saying that there’s ever any ice that’s 100% safe,” Holsclaw said. The DNR’s website offers no hard and fast rules for what’s considered a “safe” thickness.

“You cannot judge the strength of ice by one factor like its appearance, age, thickness, temperature or whether the ice is covered with snow,” the website reads. “Ice strength is based on a combination of several factors.”

Air temperature is just one of those factors. But others include wind, sunlight, whether the ice is near a spring or other moving water, and whether the ice is frozen water (black ice) or mixed with snow (white ice).

“Black ice can withstand a lot more force (than white ice),” said Adrianna Gorsky, a freshwater and marine sciences Ph.D. candidate at UW-Madison. “Even if you have really thick white ice, it might not be as strong as if you had black ice only.”

Fluctuations in temperature during winter can also have a marked effect on ice thickness and quality. In January and February of 2025, it wasn’t uncommon for temperatures to fluctuate by tens of degrees within a single week in Dane County. On Jan. 21, the day after Hembree fell through the ice, Madison temperatures were in the single digits. A week later, on Jan. 28, the high temperature was 49 degrees. This frequent melting and thawing back and forth, Gorsky said, could result in mixed layers of black and white ice that would compromise the ice’s structural integrity.

Variations in temperature can also make lake ice expand or contract, causing pressure heaves or large cracks to form in the surface of the ice.

“And there will be a gap in there where there’s thin ice or no ice at all,” said Jon Mast, a lieutenant on MFD’s Lake Rescue team. These areas can be especially dangerous to walk near.

For as much that is known about factors affecting ice thickness and qualities, “there is a lot of unknown,” said Gorsky. That’s because winter limnology is relatively understudied compared to other areas of marine science.

“There’s a lot of things we still don’t know and a lot of theory that we’ve based off summer open water season that doesn’t really hold true for winter,” Gorsky said.

Increasingly visible effects of climate change on lake ice have precipitated “a cry for more research” in winter limnology, Gorsky added. And it can’t come soon enough. Because falls through the ice are costing local businesses, nonprofits and taxpayers money.

The cost of thin ice

In Madison, there are no fines associated with being rescued from falling through the ice. Because, Blumer said, “we want people to enjoy the lakes and to have fun.” But that fun still comes at a cost.

Businesses and organizations that rely on the ice for income are feeling the strain of weakening lake ice too.

In 2024 the Clean Lakes Alliance canceled all on-ice events for its Frozen Assets Festival, including the annual 5K. According to Sarah Skwirut, the Clean Lakes Alliance’s marketing coordinator, only around 200 participants participated in the on-land “winter workout” the organization hosted in lieu of the 5K, down from 800 who ran the 5K the previous winter, which generated around $30,000 for the nonprofit.

“If the lack of ice becomes more common in the future,” Skwirut said in an email, “we will need to adapt and find new ways to engage the community and promote our work.”

Small businesses are equally if not more affected by the phenomenon. In 2022, Pat Hasburgh purchased D&S Bait and Tackle in Madison, “very aware of what I was getting myself into as far as climate change and running a business that kind of depends on ice,” Hasburgh said. He admitted the recent, mercurial winters have made it difficult to plan for the ice fishing season.

“I mean, I had a pile of augers waist high in 2022,” Hasburgh said, citing that people are less likely to need such a high-powered tool to break through the ice in warmer winters. And 2024 was even worse.

“We had four weeks of ice, as opposed to three months,” he said. “That was a rough one to try to make it through as a business.” Hasburgh is used to around a third of D&S’s business coming from ice fishing, but guessed that it was probably less than a quarter in 2024.

Beyond Madison

The increase in falls through the ice is easier to see in a populous part of the state like Dane County. But the trend is apparent across Wisconsin. And in many cases, the cost is more than just lost business or an icy bike ride.

The five deaths this past winter happened in Pewaukee, Kenosha, Fond du Lac, Superior and Westfield, an hour north of Madison, where a man died on Jan. 6 after falling through the ice on Lawrence Lake while riding a UTV.

In a Facebook post, the Marquette County Sheriff’s Office urged the public “to avoid venturing onto frozen lakes or rivers unless they have confirmed the ice is thick enough for safe activities.”

The temperature in Westfield on Jan. 6 was below freezing and had been every day the previous week.

An October 2024 study published in Nature Reviews Earth & Environment warned that lakes between 40 and 45 degrees north latitude — a range that includes all of Wisconsin south of Wausau — could lose all safe ice for the winter sometime this century.

A solution may lie in more research. Gorsky said predicting the future of what winter is going to look like for lakes “is a really big research topic.”

For Hembree’s part, he considers himself lucky to be alive. But he has “no concerns” about going back on the ice. He’s enjoying it while he still can.

“If I do go out commuting on the lake again I will be, certainly, more cautious,” he said.

On thin ice: Falls through the ice on Wisconsin lakes are becoming more common. There’s more than just warm weather to blame. is a post from Wisconsin Watch, a non-profit investigative news site covering Wisconsin since 2009. Please consider making a contribution to support our journalism.

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Local experts say – and national data supports – that winter brings a broad set of safety risks, including risks that disproportionately affect older adults and young children.

Dangers include hypothermia and frostbite, falls inside and outside the home and carbon monoxide poisoning.

Here are more details about those dangers and how to prevent or minimize them.

Slips and falls

The Wisconsin Department of Health Services reports that falls are one of the most common reasons for emergency medical service responses statewide.

In 2024, emergency medical personnel in Wisconsin responded to more than 140,000 fall-related calls, accounting for about 21% of all 911-related ambulance runs statewide, according to DHS data.

Older adults are disproportionately affected.

According to the National Institute on Aging, older adults face a higher risk of falling due to chronic medical conditions that can limit circulation, balance or mobility, including arthritis, Parkinson’s disease and diabetes. 

Children also face a higher risk of falls, which are the leading cause of nonfatal injuries for all children, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 

The Milwaukee Health Department urges residents to prepare for icy conditions as temperatures fall and to clear snow and ice from walkways to help prevent falls. 

The National Institute on Aging recommends using ice melt products or sand on walkways, using railings on stairs and walkways, avoiding shoveling snow yourself when possible and wearing rubber-soled, low-heeled footwear.

Christine Westrich, emergency response planning director for the Milwaukee Health Department, said social isolation adds another layer of risk for older adults.

“Either their friends or relatives have passed away, and they have over time socially isolated themselves,” Westrich said. 

The onset of hearing loss and dementia are risk factors for increased isolation, she added. 

Hypothermia and frostbite

Age can affect how the body handles cold exposure.

According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention , older adults with inadequate clothing, heating or food and babies in cold conditions are among the groups at highest risk of hypothermia. 

This winter, there have already been roughly 10 fatalities where cold temperatures may have played a factor, said Michael Simley, a medicolegal death investigator manager for the Milwaukee County Medical Examiner’s Office.

Extreme temperatures can also worsen existing medical emergencies, Simley added.  

A heart attack, for example, is serious under any circumstances, he said. But, he added, it becomes even more dangerous when it happens in a hostile environment like when it is very cold. 

Carbon monoxide poisoning

With colder temperatures comes increased use of furnaces and other heating systems – and with that, a higher risk of carbon monoxide poisoning.

Increased use of appliances and other items that burn fuels and other chemicals, such as furnaces, portable generators, stoves and chimneys, helps account for the higher risk, according to the CDC.

Carbon monoxide is odorless and invisible, and symptoms such as headache, dizziness and nausea may be overlooked or mistaken for other illnesses. 

“We’ve recently had two outbreaks with families of four (members) or greater,” Westrich said. “In one case, they didn’t have working heat and brought a charcoal grill inside. … In another, it was a malfunctioning furnace.”

In both situations, she said, there were no working carbon monoxide detectors.

DHS says carbon monoxide detectors should be installed on every level of the home. 

Renters should be especially vigilant, Westrich said.

“Oftentimes, what might get overlooked in the lease, it’ll say the renter is responsible for the battery replacement in those devices,” she said. “Sometimes tenants aren’t aware of that, or it’s hanging high in the ceiling – you forget it’s even there.”

Resources

The Milwaukee Health Department maintains cold weather guidance with general information and tips. 

For non-emergencies that are not crimes, the Milwaukee Police Department says residents have a number of options, a spokesperson for the department said in an email. 

Residents can request a welfare check by calling 414-933-4444. 

People seeking shelter, warming centers or other basic needs can call 211. 

Those experiencing emotional distress or mental health struggles can call or text 988, the national Suicide and Crisis Lifeline. 

Westrich and Simley both emphasized the same core message about being mindful of the people in your community.

“Check on your neighbors,” Westrich said. 

As temperatures drop, here is where you can find shelter from the cold and free winter gear

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Jonathan Aguilar is a visual journalist at Milwaukee Neighborhood News Service who is supported through a partnership between CatchLight Local and Report for America.

Winter can be dangerous for older adults and children. Here’s how to stay safe is a post from Wisconsin Watch, a non-profit investigative news site covering Wisconsin since 2009. Please consider making a contribution to support our journalism.

As powerful winter storms moved across the Midwest and into the Northeast last month, snow-covered highways, icy overpasses and whiteout conditions disrupted daily travel across multiple states. For many commuters, the storm meant delayed workdays or staying home altogether.

For school bus drivers, it meant something entirely different.

Like the U.S. Postal Service, school bus drivers navigate rain, sleet, snow, ice, high winds, and reduced visibility—often on tight schedules and challenging terrain—while transporting students safely to and from school. For districts returning from the winter break and resuming operations in regions where winter weather is unpredictable or severe, these conditions are not occasional obstacles but a routine part of operations.

School Transportation News last month asked school bus driver-trainers and safety leaders in Colorado how school transportation professionals prepare for and manage these high-risk conditions. They have spent years operating and training others to operate school buses in some of the most challenging winter environments in the country.

Preparing for Unpredictable Conditions

In Weld County School District 6, driver-trainer Shadra Terrill said rapid weather shifts are a constant consideration when preparing drivers to navigate roads in and around Greeley, Colorado.

“In Colorado, there are several different weather days,” Terrill said. “You could wake up to 60–80-degree weather and by the end of the day have a tornado or blizzard. We are always teaching and training for Mother Nature.”

Preparation begins well before drivers leave the yard. Terrill said district mechanics and technicians start buses well before dawn to ensure engines and systems are operating properly.

“Our mechanics start our buses at 3 a.m. on cold days,” she said. “We give drivers an extra 10–15 minutes as needed to clean off snow from all lights and windows.”

Beyond mechanical readiness, Terrill emphasized that driver judgment plays a critical role in winter safety. She shared an experience that continues to shape her approach to training.

“I once had heavy wind and rain. The roads were flooding, so I pulled off the highway, parked the bus in a gas station parking lot with a line of trees as a windbreak on one side of the bus,” she said.

With six students onboard, Terrill focused on both physical and emotional safety.
“I had six students and had them all sit one to a seat, facing each other with their backs to the windows,” she said.

Clear communication followed immediately.

“We called dispatch, and some called their parents to let everyone know where we were and that we were safe,” Terrill said. “I stayed calm, which helped them stay calm.”

Once conditions improved, the route was completed safely. That experience reinforces the core message Terrill shares with drivers, which is “to stay calm, take a deep breath and stay focused on safety.”

Mountain Training as a Core Requirement

For districts operating in mountainous terrain, winter preparation often extends well beyond standard CDL requirements. In Weld County and across Colorado, mountainous driving is mandatory training.

“Weld County School District 6 does have a specific training class for mountains, which includes weather training,” she said. “They have a class for approximately eight hours, and each driver is taken to the mountains for a daylong trip.”

Training covers chaining procedures, auto socks, hairpin turns, grade and pitch management, and adverse weather response.

“All [brake] retarders must be turned off, if there is any moisture on the ground or falling from the sky,” Terrill said. “Drive slowly and give yourself doubled stopping and following distance.”

Drivers progress through federally mandated Entry-Level Driver Training, skills development and pre-trip mastery before testing for a CDL. Training does not end there.

“Once a trainee has completed ELDT, driving techniques, skills training, and learned their pre-trip of the bus, they would receive their CDL after testing,” she said. “We then take the trainee and teach them all series of buses, so they are comfortable with driving before any adverse weather.”

Routes are rarely modified, she added, but support is always available.

“Should anyone ask for assistance or would like someone to ride with them, we will make that happen,” Terrill said.

Her guidance remains consistent.

“The best advice I can give is take your time, be observant, slow down and give yourself space,” she said.

Lessons from Historic Winter Storms

In nearby Colorado Springs, Debbie Thomas, lead driver-trainer for Widefield School District, said her approach to winter driving has been shaped by decades of experience, including the blizzard of 1997.

“The most challenging, memorable winter weather situation was the blizzard of 1997,” Thomas said. “The school districts shut down due to the whiteout conditions that were prevalent, and the forecast for continuous high winds with blizzard conditions.”

She recalled winds exceeding 60 mph, snow accumulation over three feet and snowdrifts reaching 15 feet.

“The schools had to shut down for three days for the area to dig out,” she said.

Thomas said preparation and composure are essential when conditions deteriorate.

“I always respect the weather and prepare for the unexpected,” she said. “I remained calm and relied on my driving capabilities so that my students would have faith in me to get them home safely.”

Maintaining a steady environment for students is also part of safe operation.

“I love to have fun with my students, so talking to them and ensuring that everything was going to be all right made the hourlong drive enjoyable,” she said.

From a technical standpoint, Thomas emphasized fundamentals that apply in all severe weather.

“Using my over-the-road experience and training, I increased my following distance, used my gears, went slow and delivered my students to their homes,” she said.

Training for Severe Weather Conditions

When discussing how new drivers are prepared for winter conditions, Thomas emphasized confidence built through repetition and fundamentals.

“Trust your driving abilities. Trust your training. Trust your vehicle by ensuring that they have done a proper safety inspection. Slow down. Increase your following distance. Use engine compression first (gearing down). Use feather braking when needed,” she said, adding that situational awareness is also central to training.

“Check your surroundings and expect the unexpected. Look for those hazards — Other roadway drivers, stalled vehicles, icy intersections, etc.,” she continued.

Widefield School District distributes monthly safety flyers focused on adverse weather and operates a mountain driving program that blends classroom instruction with hands-on experience.

“For mountain driving, we do hands-on application of actual driving,” Thomas said. “Certificates are issued for drivers participating in the mountain driving program.”

Despite this month’s storm, Thomas said Colorado operations were not significantly affected.

“Colorado usually gets the bulk of its snow in the spring, and then it is a heavy, wet snow,” she said, adding that support from trainers is critical.

“Being there and supporting them when they need it most,” Thomas said. “Answering questions with clarity and from my own experiences.”

Confidence, she noted, develops over time.

“Eventually, new drivers have to drive in adverse weather conditions without a trainer on board,” she said. “This builds confidence when a trainer is there to guide and direct correct maneuvers for driving in rain, sleet, snow and ice.”

Her message to first-time winter drivers is clear.

“Have confidence in your training. Go slow, do not be in a hurry, and you can do this.”

Managing Loss of Traction in Mountainous Terrain

For Marcus Thomas, transportation safety manager for Colorado Springs School District 11 and unrelated to Debbie Thomas, winter driving risks are most pronounced on steep grades, where packed snow and black ice can quickly compromise traction. Drawing from years of experience operating school buses on mountain roads, Thomas described one situation that underscores how rapidly conditions can change.

“Many miles and years of driving up mountainous roads, hills and downhill with snow-packed roads utilizing the Onspot Automatic Tire Chains,” he said. “Driving on black ice on a downhill, the school bus lost traction and started to slide sideways.”

In that moment, Thomas said, the priority was maintaining control and resisting overcorrection.

“Stayey alert. Slow down. Stayed in control,” he said. “Drove slowly and deployed the Onspot Automatic Tire Chains in the snow-packed roads.”

Black ice, he added, leaves little margin for error and demands patience and space. He advised driving cautiously, riding it out slowly and increasing the following distance when driving in snowy conditions (increased following spacing by doubling the four- to six-second rule). He said his district follows Colorado Department of Education guidance for adverse weather and mountain driving certifications.

“All drivers are certified on a Mountain Road Drive Certification in a school bus,” Thomas said.

Operational Adjustments During Severe Weather

Thomas said winter storms may prompt operational changes, but safety remains the priority.

“Some school closings will happen if necessary to keep the public, students and employees safe,” he said.

Routes and student stops are adjusted when needed, and two-hour delays are used to allow conditions to improve.

“All drivers will get the experience of driving in adverse conditions,” he said.
Preparation also includes reinforcing equipment checks.

“Even though it is inspected every day during pre-trip inspections, double-check the following: Onspot Automatic Tire Chains, tire depth, windshield wipers and fluid and also check heaters and defrosters,” Thomas said.

Winter in-service briefings begin in October and include hands-on practice.

“We have the drivers deploy their chains and also turn in adverse-weather student stop and route directions,” he said.

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Safety Culture and Driver Mindset

Across all three districts, one message remained consistent: Safety takes precedence over schedules.

“One key thing we push is the first stop is the only one that matters,” Marcus Thomas said. “All the other stops you will be late for due to the safety precautions and hazardous conditions.”

Terrill echoed the same principle.“We teach drivers to stay calm, take a deep breath, and stay focused on safety,” she said.

Debbie Thomas summed it up simply. “Trust your training,” she said

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