Madison, Wisconsin high school students march on the Capitol on Friday, Dec. 20 | Photo by Daphne Cooper
It was a brilliant, snowy Friday, the last day of school before winter break, as more than 100 students from high schools across Madison converged inside the Capitol. They gathered around the 30-foot balsam fir festooned with handmade ornaments, a model train chugging around the track at the base of the tree. At first it looked like a festive scene, but as the students poured into the first floor of the rotunda, then filled the second- and third-floor balconies, their shouting drowned out a group of Christmas carolers, who retreated, their songs giving way to chants of “No more silence! End gun violence!”
The Madison teens showed up to express their grief and outrage over the deaths this week of a 14-year-old student, her teacher and a gun-wielding 15-year-old girl who opened fire Monday in a classroom at the small private Abundant Life Christian School on Madison’s east side. It was the city’s first school shooting but, incredibly, the 323rd in the nation this year.
Gun violence is the leading cause of death of children and teens in the U.S. Shouting, chanting, demanding to be heard, the crowd of children came to the Capitol Friday demanding that we wake up and do something about this appalling fact.
Our nation is an outlier, with a rate of gun violence that dwarfs other large, high-income countries. Firearm homicides here are 33 times higher than in Australia and 77 times higher than in Germany, according to a report from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington medical school. Not surprisingly, firearm injuries tend to be more frequent in places where people have easy access to firearms, according to a 2018 study published in the Journal of the American Medical Association.
What other country in the world could live with the Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting, where 20 little children between 6 and 7 years old and six adult staff were gunned down, and respond by making no significant restrictions on firearms?
“My parents constantly talk about how, when Sandy Hook happened, they thought that would be the end of it,” said Danny Johnson, a first-year student at Madison West High School who joined the 3-mile march to the Capitol on Friday, carrying a sign scrawled on a sheet of notebook paper that said, “Thoughts and prayers until it’s your own child.”
“To constantly have to go through it — we shouldn’t have to be here. We should be in school not having to worry about it at all,” Johnson added.
Hanging over balconies and leaning against marble pillars, teens held up handmade signs that said; “Enough!” “You write your policies on a carpet of our dead bodies,” and “Graduations not funerals.”
In Wisconsin, the rate of gun deaths increased 45% from 2013 to 2022, compared to a 36% increase nationwide, according to the Giffords Law Center.
Every year since he was elected in 2018, Gov. Tony Evers and Democrats in the state Legislature have tried in vain to get Republican cooperation on ending the state’s current exemption from background checks for private gun sales. A proposed “red flag” law that would allow police or family members to seek an extreme risk protection order in court to take guns from gun owners who are found to be a danger to themselves or others has also gone nowhere. Both of these measures are broadly popular with voters across the political spectrum. Somehow that doesn’t seem to matter.
After this week’s school shooting. Assembly Speaker Robin Vos released a statement saying, “Today’s tragedy is shocking, senseless and heartbreaking. My thoughts and prayers are with the students, parents and faculty who will have to live with the trauma and grief of this day for the rest of their lives.” But Vos stopped short of saying he would make any effort whatsoever to protect kids and teachers from being shot to death at school. That phrase “thoughts and prayers,” rightly derided by the students who protested at the Capitol on Friday, is a pathetic substitute for action.
“Last year it was 12 years since Sandy Hook, 25 years since Columbine, and all our politicians can say from their cushy seats is that they’re sending out their thoughts and prayers about the leading cause of death for children in America!” yelled Ian Malash, a senior at Vel Phillips Memorial High School in Madison, pacing around the tree in the center of the rotunda. “We’re showing them right now and we are going to continue to show them that we are done with thoughts and prayers. We will make change happen because our lives depend on it.”
Vos, apparently recovered from his heartbreak over Monday’s tragedy and back to his old snarky self by Wednesday, mounted a robust defense of the status quo on X, retweeting a post from Wisconsin Right Now that mocked Democrats who “politicize this tragedy with cheap talking points.” The post claimed that, since it’s already illegal for a 15-year-old to possess a handgun, it’s ridiculous to connect the recent shooting to any effort to change gun laws.
But, as state Sen. Kelda Roys told the crowd on Friday, “We know that states that have passed gun safety laws like background checks, like red flag laws … they see gun deaths and firearm injuries go down. We can do that here in Wisconsin, too. We just need to change the minds or change the legislators — and the judges, too, by the way.”
“My generation and the people in this building have let you down,” Rick Abegglen, the parent of a West High School daughter who helped organize the protest, told the crowd in the Capitol. “I am so proud of each and every one of you for standing up for yourselves. A few moments ago I saw somebody close the doors of the Senate because they did not want to hear your voices. Think about it.”
As he spoke, the students yelled louder, their voices bouncing off the marble walls, becoming harder and harder to ignore.
Several hundred people gathered on the Capitol Square in Madison Tuesday evening for a vigil following a school shooting Monday that left three dead and injured six other people. (Erik Gunn | Wisconsin Examiner)
A day after a student killed two people, injured six others and took her own life at a Madison private school, public officials and community members mourned and processed their own trauma from the devastating violence.
“It is OK to ask for what you need to take care of your own mental health,” said Madison Mayor Satya Rhodes-Conway at a vigil on Madison’s Capitol Square Tuesday evening. “Please. Please. Let us be a community where it is okay to ask for help. Let us be a community where, when we see someone who needs help, that we are the first to extend our hands and to offer resources where they are needed. Let us be a community that takes care of each other. That is where our focus is right now — on caring for everyone who has been impacted by this gun violence.”
The vigil was organized by the Boys & Girls Club of Dane County. “We come together to begin the healing journey for our children and to support one another in this face of another school shooting that has hit our community,” said Michael Johnson, the organization’s president. “Let us remind each other that we are loved, that we are valued and we are not alone in this difficult time.”
“Violence in our community is preventable,” said state Rep. Sheila Stubbs (D-Madison). “We must not stand silent, but instead be moved to action.” She quoted Rev. Jesse Jackson, the civil rights activist: “At the end of the day, we must go forward with hope and not backwards by fear and division.”
Elected officials have united in expressing grief at the shooting. Following through on his announcement Monday, Gov. Tony Evers signed an executive order Tuesday morning calling for the U.S. and Wisconsin flags to be flown at half staff on all state buildings through Sunday, Dec. 22, as well as on the date of each victim’s funeral.
In the well of the U.S. House Tuesday, U.S. Rep. Mark Pocan, flanked by a bipartisan group of six of Wisconsin’s eight House members, led a moment of silence in recognition of those affected by the shooting.
“These were innocent lives, innocent victims of senseless violence, and we mourn their loss with their families and loved ones and the entire Abundant Life Community,” Pocan said. He thanked law enforcement, first responders and health care workers who went to the scene or treated the victims. He emphasized as well that not just the dead and wounded, but the school community, its students, staff and parents, are all victims.
Pocan, like many Democratic lawmakers, has long been an outspoken advocate for tougher gun laws aimed at curbing gun violence. He alluded to that cause in his House speech, saying, “We must do better and we must turn these moments of silence into moments of action.”
But Pocan demurred from discussing specific policy talking points.
At a WisPolitics panel, Assembly Democratic leader Rep. Greta Neubauer cited direct policy changes that Democrats in the Legislature have tried in vain to pass over the last several years, only to be blocked by large Republican majorities: red flag laws that enable authorities to take guns from people perceived to be dangerous and universal background checks on all gun purchases. With a narrower GOP majority in both houses, she said, she hopes measures such as those could advance in the session starting in January.
Meanwhile, on the same panel, incoming Republican Senate President Mary Felzkowski highlighted concerns ranging from violent entertainment to social media — rather than firearms — as potential targets for regulation to reduce gun violence.
In atelevision interview, Wisconsin Senate Majority Leader Devin LeMahieu (R-Oostburg) told Emilee Fannon of TV station CBS 58 that he would support a request by Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul for $2.3 million in the state’s 2025-27 budget to continue permanent funding for the Office of School Safety in the Wisconsin Department of Justice. The office provides K-12 schools with resources to improve security measures and trains school staff on handling traumatic events and crisis prevention and response. It also runs a round-the-clock tip line.
The office became a partisan flashpoint in the Legislature’s 2023-25 budget deliberations after Republicans rejected funding and Democratic lawmakers attacked their decision. The state DOJ subsequently extended its operation by redirecting $1.3 million in federal pandemic relief funds.
In the hours after the shooting, elected officials were unanimous in their expressions of grief while dividing along party lines in their policy responses.
“Today’s tragedy is shocking, senseless and heartbreaking,” Assembly Speaker Robin Vos (R-Rochester) said Monday.
“My thoughts and prayers are with the students, parents and faculty who will have to live with the trauma and grief of this day for the rest of their lives,” he said. “There are no words to adequately express condolences to those who have lost loved ones or to express gratitude for the first responders who were on scene for this violence.”
The statement made no reference either for or against legislation to address gun violence.
Democratic lawmakers weren’t so reticent.
“Right now, it’s hard to think of a greater moral failing as a nation and society than our inaction and unwillingness to keep our children safe from gun violence,” said Sen. Kelda Roys (D-Madison). “We do not have to accept this as an ordinary part of life. No other country does. Indeed – guns are the number one cause of death for American children, and that is a policy choice.”
At a news conference hours after the shooting Monday, Rhodes-Conway largely kept her focus on trauma and healing. “I am on record that I think we need to do better in our country and our community to prevent gun violence,” she said, adding that solutions should be the work of the whole community. A little later, she added: “But first and foremost, what needs to be a priority for all of us is supporting our young people, and that is where our community’s attention needs to turn at this point in time.”
And at Tuesday night’s vigil, she kept the attention on those who had immediately responded to the crisis. “Our community showed up in a big way, and is still continuing to show up,” Rhodes-Conway said. “Ultimately, that’s what gives me hope.”
Dane County's DAIS held an Oct. 1 rally for Domestic Violence Awareness Month. (Henry Redman | Wisconsin Examiner)
A report released Thursday from Dane County’s Domestic Abuse Intervention Services (DAIS) found that Dane County judges grant restraining orders against perpetrators of intimate partner violence in 34% of cases.
The report found that even when a judge grants a restraining order, it is often not for the amount of time requested by the victim — despite state law requiring that the order be for the length of time requested by the petitioner.
State law allows judges to impose restraining orders on domestic abusers for up to four years in most cases, and up to 10 years when it can be proven the abuser is especially dangerous. But in a handful of cases, the report found, a judge granted restraining orders for only two years to allow a “cooling off period” for the people involved despite “serious lethality concerns testified to in the hearing.”
Kianna Hanson, the legal advocacy program manager at DAIS, said at an event announcing the report’s findings Thursday morning that the “cooling off period” is a myth and that judges should follow the law.
“The fallacy of the cooling off period, which some judges have cited as a reason for choosing to grant an injunction from less time than the petitioner has requested, which in domestic abuse injunction goes against [state law],” Hanson said. “This mythology around domestic abuse cases is harmful because it suggests that domestic abuse could be the result of anger or not being able to control one’s emotion, when in reality, domestic violence is most often a conscious choice that is rooted in gaining power and control over one’s partner.”
The report was completed by a team from DAIS and other community organizations to observe more than 800 hearings in Dane County Circuit Court from April 2023 to April 2024. At the Thursday morning event, Wisconsin Supreme Court Justice Jill Karofsky said the report was a step toward trying to make Wisconsin’s legal system a better place for everyone involved in it.
“What if the legal system were different? What if the legal system were the vehicle for healing and for change?” she said. “What if people left the legal system in a better place than where they entered, and I mean all of us. I mean judges and attorneys and witnesses and court reporters and victims and defendants and plaintiffs and bailiffs and advocates. What if we left work every day feeling energized and satiated and nourished instead of stressed out, depressed and exhausted, and what if the legal system itself helped us get to a better place?”
The report found that in the vast majority of injunction hearings, 87%, the victim seeking the restraining order was there pro se, meaning they were representing themself. Just 15% of petitioners had support in court from organizations such as DAIS, who have employees who serve as court advocates to help victims navigate the legal process (but aren’t attorneys and can’t provide legal advice).
Representation from an attorney or support from a legal advocate vastly increased the chances of a restraining order being granted, the court found. When acting on their own, petitioners had injunctions granted in 29% of cases but when assisted by an attorney or advocate, injunctions were granted 62% of the time — meaning representation increased the chances of successfully obtaining a restraining order by 114%.
Hanson told the Wisconsin Examiner after Thursday’s event that DAIS would be able to handle more restraining order cases under its legal advocacy program, saying that because the issuance of a restraining order can be a life-or-death decision for an abuse victim, the organization would prioritize those cases.
Domestic abuse organizations across the state face critical funding pressures after a steep decline in federal money they receive hit this fall. Advocates have warned those funding cuts could strain resources for organizations like DAIS across the state.
The report also notes a number of comments court observers saw judges make during hearings in these cases that were interpreted as minimizing abuse, treating people of color differently and misstating the law.
One judge, according to the report, denied an injunction over harassment, stating that he was doing so “because unwanted touching, kissing, or harassing text messages demanding explicit photos is not sexual assault,” despite state law saying it is.
The judges are quoted anonymously in the report but DAIS staff said at Thursday’s event that in the organization’s next version of the report, it will attribute the quotes.
Dane County Judge Julie Genovese, in attendance at the event, said during a question and answer period that she doesn’t think naming the judges will be helpful — even though the comments were made on the record in open court.
“I’d like to say on behalf of the judges, that it would be a very helpful thing for somebody to come and present to the judges at a judge’s meeting, rather than we’re going to just identify you on our next report, to come to the judges discuss with them what are the issues, offer the training or the resources, rather than just do it in this form,” Genovese said.
Gun violence homicides dropped by nearly 17% in Wisconsin over the first eight months of 2024 compared to the same time period in 2023, according to a report by the Center for American Progress, a nonpartisan policy institute.
The report, released in September, also found that gun violence victimizations, defined as all firearm-related injuries and deaths, dropped in Milwaukee nearly 20% over that same time period.
“I think this decrease is happening for a number of reasons, but one is due to community violence intervention measures that are working,” said Nicholas Matuszewski, executive director of Wisconsin Anti-Violence Effort, a statewide grassroots organization.
Local violence intervention efforts include 414 Life, a violence interruption program; and Project Ujima, which provides services to families and children who’ve been impacted by violence.
In addition, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley announced in late October the launch of the national gun violence program “Advance Peace.”
“Advance Peace is an investment in solutions to decreasing gun violence that will help ensure Milwaukee County is a safe and healthy community where families and children can thrive,” Crowley said in a news release announcing the program.
The Wisconsin Community Safety Fund grants provided 10 organizations, including the Alma Center in Milwaukee, with $10.4 million in funding to reduce violence stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic.
“After the pandemic, we had a huge increase in gun ownership and gun purchases which naturally led to more gun violence,” Matuszewski said. “Those numbers are dropping now.”
While many cities cited in the report have seen gun violence return or drop to pre-pandemic levels, Milwaukee is still on pace to experience more shootings this year than in 2019, the year before the pandemic.
According to data from the Milwaukee Homicide Review Commission dashboard, there were 442 nonfatal shootings in 2019. Those numbers rose to more than 750 each year from 2020 to 2023. So far this year, the city has experienced 471 shootings, according to information on the dashboard.
‘Too many shootings’
Travis Hope, a community activist who conducts street outreach on Milwaukee’s South Side, said gun violence still occurs at an alarming rate in the city.
“Too many shootings are still happening and impacting families, communities and especially young people,” Hope said.
According to data from the Milwaukee Police Department, there have been 119 homicides in the city so far this year, compared to 153 during the same time period in 2023 and 192 in 2022.
The number of nonfatal shootings in Milwaukee also is down significantly, with 471 so far this year, compared to 769 at this time in 2023 and 788 in 2022.
Officials address drop in gun violence in Milwaukee
During a news conference discussing the reduction in shootings, among other crimes in the city, Mayor Cavalier Johnson cited the work of the Milwaukee Police Department as one reason for the drop in shootings and other crime this year.
“The work that they do is a big factor, a huge factor, in making Milwaukee safer,” he said.
Johnson said that in addition to law enforcement, intervention efforts have also been key in reducing crime.
“When we prevent a crime through intervention, that makes each and every one of us safer,” he said.
Ashanti Hamilton, director of the Office of Community Safety and Wellness, said that while the decrease in homicides and nonfatal shootings is promising, more work needs to be done.
“Reducing violence is an ongoing process,” he said. “Sustainable change requires addressing the root causes of crime, and this means looking beyond the immediate crime reduction strategies and focusing on broader social, economic and systemic changes that contribute to violence.”
A Bay County, Florida, paraprofessional for Bay District Schools is facing child abuse charges following an incident on a school bus earlier this month, reported WDHN News.
According to the news report, Panama City Police arrested 57-year-old Sylinda Goodman on Wednesday and charged her with four counts, including child abuse and simple assault with the intentional threat to commit violence.
Investigators say via the article that on Nov. 5, the school bus cameras recorded Goodman hitting, punching and pinching several children through her job as a paraprofessional.
According to the article, the video allegedly recorded Goodman instructing one student with disabilities to hit another child who is non-verbally autistic.
Goodman is reportedly being held in the Bay County Jail on a $10,000 bond. Police also charged the bus driver Althea Russell with child neglect for failing to intervene or report the alleged abuse.
Artificial intelligence, social media and a sprawling network of influencers helped spread propaganda and misinformation in the final weeks of the 2024 election campaign, an election technology expert says. (Melissa Sue Gerrits | Getty Images)
Advancements in AI technology, and the changing “information environment” undoubtedly influenced how campaigns operated and voters made decisions in the 2024 election, an elections and democracy expert said.
Technologists and election academics warned a few months ago that mis- and disinformation would play an even larger role in 2024 than it did in 2020 and 2016. What exactly that disinformation would look like became more clear in the two weeks leading up to the election, said Tim Harper, senior policy analyst for democracy and elections at the Center for Democracy and Technology.
“I think a lot of folks kind of maybe prematurely claimed that generative AI’s impact was overblown,” Harper said. “And then, you know, in short order, in the last week, we saw several kinds of disinformation campaigns emerge.”
AI also played a role in attempted voter suppression, Harper said, not just by foreign governments, but by domestic parties as well. EagleAI, a database that scrapes public voter data, was being used by a 2,000-person North Carolina group which aimed to challenge the ballots of “suspicious voters.”
Emails obtained by Wired last month show that voters the group aimed to challenge include “same-day registrants, US service members overseas, or people with homestead exemptions, a home tax exemption for vulnerable individuals, such as elderly or disabled people, in cases where there are anomalies with their registration or address.”
The group also aimed to target people who voted from a college dorm, people who registered using a PO Box address and people with “inactive” voter status.
Another shift Harper noted from the 2020 election was a rollback of enforcement of misinformation policies on social media platforms. Many platforms feared being seen as “influencing the election” if they flagged or challenged misinformation content.
Last year, Facebook and Instagram’s parent company Meta, as well as X began allowing political advertisements that perpetuated election denial of the 2020 election.
Youtube also changed its policy to allow election misinformation, saying “In the current environment, we find that while removing this content does curb some misinformation, it could also have the unintended effect of curtailing political speech without meaningfully reducing the risk of violence or other real-world harm.”
But there are real-world risks for rampant misinformation, Harper said. Federal investigative agencies have made clear that misinformation narratives that delegitimize past elections directly contribute to higher risk of political violence.
Platforms with less-well-established trust and safety teams, such Discord and Twitch also play a role. They experienced their “first rodeo” of mass disinformation this election cycle, Harper said.
“They were tested, and I think we’re still evaluating how they did at preventing this content,” he said.
Podcasters and social influencers also increasingly shaped political opinions of their followers this year, often under murky ethical guidelines. Influencers do not follow ethical guidelines and rules for sharing information like journalists do, but Americans have increasingly relied on social media for their news.
There’s also a lack of transparency between influencers and the political campaigns and candidates they’re speaking about — some have reportedly taken under-the-table payments by campaigns, or have made sponsored content for their followers without disclosing the agreement to viewers.
“In terms of kind of the balkanization of the internet, of the information environment, … I think this election cycle may end up being seen kind of as ‘the influencer election,’” Harper said.
Donald Trump supporters clash with police and security forces as people try to storm the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021 in Washington, D.C. (Photo by Brent Stirton/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON — The threat of political violence will likely hang over the nation’s capital in the weeks following Election Day, security experts say, despite intensive preparations by law enforcement officials determined to avoid another Jan. 6 insurrection.
The 2,000-plus officers who make up the U.S. Capitol Police, as well as other federal law enforcement agencies like the Secret Service, have responded to a surge in threats against elected officials during the last few years, including two assassination attempts against Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump just this year.
But the threats, attacks and shooting have led to questions about whether the two agencies are truly prepared for the presidential transition, especially after a report released this week said the Secret Service “requires fundamental reform to carry out its mission.”
The agency is tasked with planning and coordinating security for Congress’ certification of the Electoral College on Jan. 6 —the first time it’s been designated a National Special Security Event — and Inauguration Day on Jan. 20.
Experts interviewed by States Newsroom said there is a very real chance of political violence in the weeks and months ahead, though they said law enforcement agencies have learned from recent events. The unrest could build after what is expected to be a very close presidential election, with results possibly delayed for days or longer or even litigated in the courts.
“Unfortunately, you can never have 100% security,” said Javed Ali, associate professor of practice at the Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy at the University of Michigan.
“It’s nice to think that would exist. But, if you’re trying to consider all the different kinds of variables that you have to plan for, there’s always going to be a gap or vulnerability — now what you try to do is kind of minimize the big one and hope that the small ones don’t get exploited.”
Darrell M. West, the Douglas Dillon Chair in Governmental Studies at the Brookings Institution, said the risk of political violence could increase following Election Day if one or more political leaders object to the outcome.
“For months, we’ve been hearing extreme and sometimes violent rhetoric,” West said. “And rhetoric has consequences — it can encourage some people to take action.”
Trump has refused to accept the 2020 election results, and his running mate, Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, declined to say Trump lost the election. Vance on Oct. 12 said there was a “peaceful transfer of power” in January 2021.
Trump has repeatedly recycled false claims he made following his loss that the system is rigged — a talking point he’s likely to use to rile up supporters should he lose this year’s election. Trump has been charged by special counsel Jack Smith with four felony counts in connection with 2020 election interference, in a complex case that will continue after the election.
Threats against lawmakers
Members of Congress are more vulnerable than presidential candidates, in part because most lawmakers live in normal houses and don’t have security details anywhere close to the kind the Secret Service provides for high-ranking officials.
And unlike the presidency, which has a long line of succession to avoid gaps in authority following a death or a crisis, Congress has been criticized for not having better plans in place to address continuity of government following a mass casualty or similar event.
U.S. Capitol Police Chief J. Thomas Manger testified in April the agency was looking for ways to bolster protection for lawmakers in the line of presidential succession, like the speaker of the House and Senate president pro tempore.
Manger told the panel that security for those two officials was substandard to that provided for the Secretary of State, who sits below them in the line of succession.
“We can’t just go back to the days when we said, ‘Well, we’ll just follow them around and we’ll make sure they’re well protected wherever they are,’ because their homes, their families are at risk,” he testified.
Members of Congress who haven’t risen to the ranks of leadership don’t get security details unless there are specific threats to their safety. And those aren’t permanent.
That could present challenges for lawmakers who have higher profiles or who regularly receive threats, especially if people respond violently to the election results and encourage their supporters to take matters into their own hands.
Trump assassination attempts
Making the situation more complicated, this year has shown that substantial levels of security aren’t a guarantee of safety.
Trump has some of the highest levels of protection in the country, if not the world, but that did not stop a man from shooting at the former president during a rally in Pennsylvania this summer. A separate would-be gunman was spotted and apprehended just off Trump’s Florida golf course with a semi-automatic weapon in September.
Both instances raised questions about the Secret Service’s ability to protect Trump as well as others, though agency leaders maintain they’re up to the task.
Trump’s experiences, as the subject of political violence, haven’t deterred him from spreading disinformation about Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris as well as other lawmakers who disagree with him on policy issues.
Trump’s comments about immigrants have also led to threats against everyday people, including Haitian immigrants in Ohio, who are in the country legally.
During an interview with Maria Bartiromo on “Sunday Morning Futures” on Fox News earlier this month, Trump said he may use the National Guard or the military against his political opponents should he win reelection, calling them “the enemy from within.”
“We have some very bad people,” Trump said. “We have some sick people. Radical left lunatics. And it should be very easily handled by, if necessary, by National Guard, or if really necessary by the military, because they can’t let that happen.”
The military and National Guard have significantly different training programs and missions than local, state, or federal law enforcement, making Trump’s comments somewhat darker than previous claims he’d try to put his political opponents in prison if reelected.
Trump hasn’t committed to respecting the results of the election or supporting a peaceful transition in power should he lose his bid for the White House.
Trump’s comments could indicate that violence is likely following the election, if he loses, or after he regains the powers of the presidency, if he wins.
Delayed election results predicted
West from the Brookings Institution said violence isn’t likely to take place in the days immediately following the end of voting on Nov. 5, since it’s unlikely anyone learns the results of the presidential election for a few days.
Mail-in ballots, which Democrats tend to submit in larger numbers than Republicans, could lead to confusion in swing states, especially if people don’t understand they tend to boost numbers for Democratic candidates over GOP politicians as they’re counted, he said.
“We could end up in a situation where on election night, Trump is ahead, because we know Republicans tend to vote in person on Election Day, and Democrats often vote via mail ballots,” West said. “And then as the mail ballots get counted on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, the numbers may shift from Trump to Harris.
“And I think that’s a very bad combination, because it will look to some individuals like voter fraud, even though there’s a perfectly logical explanation for the change. But that’s a scenario that could lead to violence, because it’ll look like the election is being stolen from Trump.”
While the presidential candidates will play a significant role in stirring up or calming down their supporters, members of Congress, many of whom sought to legitimize misinformation and disinformation four years ago, have responsibilities as well.
“We need leaders who act responsibly, but unfortunately, in the last few months, we have not seen that,” West said. “We’ve seen members of Congress who have promoted misinformation. There’s been a lot of it surrounding the hurricane, and so the fear is that there will be blatant lies that then will incite people to take action.”
Learning from 2020
Ali, from the University of Michigan, said he expects federal law enforcement will be better prepared for post-election violence than they were four years ago, though there are still chances for violent people to slip through the cracks.
The most likely scenario, Ali said, is a single actor or “lone wolf” attack and not a mob marching to the Capitol, the way Trump supporters did on Jan. 6.
“I still think it’s relatively low,” Ali said of the likelihood of violence. “But as we’ve seen, all it takes is one person to really shake up the perception of security. And if they’re aiming at President Trump or Vice President Harris, well then, you know the stakes are even higher.”
Ali said he’s confident that the Secret Service, U.S. Capitol Police and other law enforcement agencies in the Washington, D.C., area are preparing for various scenarios, though he’s less sure about what would happen if there’s violence at state capitals.
“There might be a little more vulnerability there,” Ali said. “But I still think, at least when we’re getting to the Electoral College (certification) day, that January 6th-type insurrection will be almost impossible to pull off.”
When it comes to spreading disinformation, Ali said, he expects there will be a combination of foreign adversaries, including Iran and Russia, as well as domestic actors.
“You’ll probably see a lot of disinformation, especially if Vice President Harris wins, sort of casting doubt on the integrity of the voting, the credibility of the process, maybe going after specific individuals and key swing states, or even counties,” Ali said.
“All those things that were happening in 2020. But there were also costs to doing that, as we’ve seen too, with the civil charges and some of the potential criminal ones as well,” he added. “So I think that’s also an area domestically, where people will have to tread very cautiously. That doesn’t mean that you won’t see it, but again, there might be a line that gets crossed where people will be held accountable for that.”
‘More prepared than ever before’
U.S. Capitol Police Inspector General David T. Harper said USCP leadership has implemented the 100-plus recommendations put forward by his predecessor following the Jan. 6 attack, closing gaps that existed that day.
“I think they’ve made a lot of improvements, and I think that they’re more prepared than ever before,” Harper said, though he later added he couldn’t “say for certain that they are prepared to handle anything that can come up” due to the unpredictable nature of domestic terrorism and political violence.
The OIG is also “prepared to be all hands on deck” in the event of another attack on the Capitol or lawmakers takes place, to analyze what went wrong and make recommendations for USCP to implement, he said.
Harper, whose tenure as inspector general began earlier this year, noted during the interview that much of what he can publicly discuss is restricted by national security concerns.
The U.S. Capitol Police declined an interview request from States Newsroom, but provided written information about changes that it’s implemented during the last few years.
Among those is a law approved by Congress that allows the USCP chief to request the National Guard without the approval of the three-member Capitol Police board.
USCP has also overhauled its intelligence-gathering activities and established partnerships with other law enforcement agencies to bolster its ranks ahead of major events.
Secret Service planning for Jan. 6
The Secret Service is one of those partners and it will take the lead this year planning security for major events during the presidential transition, even those undertaken by Congress inside the Capitol.
While Inauguration Day has traditionally been categorized as a National Special Security Event, the Department of Homeland Security has extended that classification for the first time for Congress certifying the winner of the presidential race on Jan. 6.
Nate Herring, spokesperson for the United States Secret Service, said part of the process includes planning with other law enforcement agencies for “various scenarios” that could take place, including the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Metropolitan Police Department.
“We work very closely with our partners throughout the whole planning process,” Herring said. “And D.C. is especially unique because National Special Security Events occur fairly frequently.”
But the Secret Service’s leadership and structure have come under scrutiny during the last few months.
The four-member panel tasked with investigating the Pennsylvania assassination attempt against Trump wrote in the 52-page report released in mid-October that the Secret Service “has become bureaucratic, complacent, and static even though risks have multiplied and technology has evolved.”
“This is a zero-fail mission, for any failure endangers not only the life of the protectee, but also the fundamentals of our government itself,” they wrote.
Without substantial changes to the Secret Service, the independent review panel wrote, it believes the type of deadly attack that took place in Butler, Pennsylvania, “can and will happen again.”
Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas released a written statement after the report’s release, saying the department had begun “taking the actions needed to advance the Secret Service’s protection mission,” including addressing the “systemic and foundational issues” described by the review panel.
D.C. planning
District of Columbia Assistant City Administrator Chris Rodriguez said that city officials will be watching for any indications people intent on violence begin traveling or gathering inside the city following Election Day.
“We are obviously attuned to what happened last time. I mean, I don’t think we can ignore that, and we’re not,” Rodriguez said, referring to the Jan. 6 attack. “But we also are in a place where we have great relationships among our agencies within the region, with the federal government in terms of coordination, and we will be prepared to adapt our operational posture in any way that we need to.”
D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser originally requested the NSSE designation for Jan. 6, which Rodriguez said has increased planning and coordination, in hopes of avoiding any violence.
Rodriguez also stressed D.C. officials and the city’s police department are used to planning for the large crowds and protests that tend to take place whenever there’s a presidential transition.
“We are a city that prides itself, as the nation’s capital, to ensuring that there is a peaceful transition of power,” he said. “And we will do our part to ensure that.”
A new report found that Wisconsin saw 85 domestic violence-related deaths in 2023, a slight decrease from the previous year.
The report’s release comes as organizations offering support to victims of domestic violence are facing steep budget cuts due to a decline in federal funding. Advocates have warned those budget cuts — which may mean less access to shelters, resources and legal advocacy — could lead to an increase in domestic violence deaths moving forward.
The annual report, released by End Abuse, a statewide coalition of organizations and policy experts, is gathered using crime data from the Wisconsin Department of Justice and supplemented with other sources. The report’s total count of deaths includes domestic violence victims as well as other family members killed in an incident and perpetrators who died by suicide or were killed by law enforcement or by their victims.
This year’s report found there were 66 incidents of domestic violence-related homicide resulting in the death of 54 victims. In 17 cases the perpetrator died by suicide after killing their partner or after law enforcement responded. Law enforcement killed the perpetrator in seven incidents and in four the victim killed the perpetrator in self-defense.
The report includes a series of recommendations, primarily focused on addressing structural inequities and systemic racism as well as controlling the spread of firearms.
“We call for action we know will save lives,” the report states. “Year after violent year, we offer data-backed solutions, tell stories encapsulating victims’ and advocates’ experiences, and make explicit requests from lawmakers. Year after year, we hope the stories of those who died will illuminate these requests. We ask, again: Prioritize lives that will otherwise be lost to preventable violence.”
On Oct. 1, the start of domestic violence awareness month, a group of Dane County-based advocates rallied outside the Capitol demanding support for the organizations that work to keep victims safe.
“Domestic violence is not something that happens somewhere else to someone else, it happens right here in our community, to people that we know and love,” said Shannon Barry, executive director of Madison’s Domestic Abuse Intervention Services (DAIS). “We have the data. The statistics show us how frequently this is happening. We see the arrests, the calls for help and the tragic homicides directly tied to domestic violence. We know the impact, but knowing the numbers alone won’t change anything, because what we need is for this community to care, to act and to stand with us and stand with survivors.”
The End Abuse report found that more than 77% of perpetrators in domestic violence homicide incidents were male. The average age of perpetrators was 38, and the average age of victims was 38.
The incidents took place in 22 of Wisconsin’s 72 counties, with 42% in rural counties and the other 58% in urban counties. Almost half of the incidents — 28 — occurred in Milwaukee County. Of the victims in the domestic abuse homicides, 28 were Black and 28 were white, according to the report.
By far, the most common method used in Wisconsin’s domestic violence homicides was guns, with 55 of the deaths coming by firearm. The next most common method was stabbing, which was used in eight of the incidents.
At the DAIS rally, one of the organization’s board members, Rachel Reilly, discussed how hard it can be for someone in an abusive relationship to ask for help. Reilly told the gathered crowd of a few dozen people about how she left an abusive marriage, the panic attacks she suffered while working up the courage to ask DAIS for help, and that her ex-husband killed his new girlfriend and himself after she left.
“There isn’t a moment that goes by that I don’t truly believe that DAIS is what helped me be safe and helped my kid be safe,” Reilly said.
Reilly concluded by noting the sharp budget cuts organizations in Dane County and across the state are facing.
The report identifies a number of policy areas in which progress would also help reduce domestic violence rates in Wisconsin.
Wisconsin has the highest homicide rate for Black women in the country. The report connects domestic violence to many of Wisconsin’s structural inequities for Black residents, including rates of poverty, incarceration, unemployment and educational attainment.
“Addressing DV requires recognizing its economic dimensions and structural roots,” the report states. “To tackle this crisis effectively, the Wisconsin legislature should establish a task force to investigate and address the root causes of violence against Black women and girls. This task force would analyze contributing factors and recommend actions to the legislature to eliminate this violence.”
Easy access to firearms and a shortage of affordable housing options are also named as factors that lead to increases in domestic violence homicides.
“A lack of affordable housing leaves victims with few options for escaping abusive situations,” the report states. “Without stable housing, survivors face greater barriers to accessing safety and support, increasing their vulnerability to lethal violence. Housing instability forces survivors to stay in unsafe environments due to financial constraints. Inadequate eviction laws and financial aid exacerbate this problem, leaving victims with few options for escaping abusive situations.”
Many of the factors the report notes are areas that will be affected by the advocacy organizations’ budget struggles. The report notes that 73% of unmet requests at domestic violence support agencies are for emergency housing and that service deserts in rural parts of the state contribute to deaths.
“Federal funding, already dwindling for years, will be slashed by 70% in October 2024, leaving Wisconsin’s local DV programs struggling to meet the needs of survivors,” the report states.
“Beyond the moral and ethical imperative to act, there are over $657 million in annual economic losses associated with domestic violence,” the report adds. “We must meaningfully increase funding in our state budget in the long-term to address this crisis of violence and remove existing funding barriers that prevent flexible service delivery and prevention efforts.”
Blind figure of Justice holding scales | Getty Images Creative
Domestic violence shelters and victim services organizations across Wisconsin are bracing for massive cuts to their budgets because Wisconsin’s allocation from a federal program has dropped from $40 million to $13 million.
The cuts caused the state Department of Justice (DOJ) to limit grants available to community based organizations and government agencies such as victim-witness departments within county district attorney’s offices. Organizations were only allowed to request just $250,000 this year.
That cap caused some organizations to receive far less federal money than in past years. Stevens Point-based CAP Services, Inc. saw its VOCA allocation drop from $985,895 last year to $98,219.
Data from the DOJ shows that on average, organizations received about $250,000 less money through VOCA than they did last year. But because the DOJ imposed the cap on grant requests as a way to make sure the money available got spread as fairly as possible, that decline doesn’t show how organizations may have limited their requests when they actually needed far more.
The Victims of Crime Act (VOCA) takes fees, fines and penalties collected in federal court proceedings and disburses those funds to the states to use on victim services — which can include the operations of community-based organizations such as domestic violence shelters and rape crisis centers and the work of victim-witness offices within county district attorneys’ offices.
These organizations and offices play a crucial role in the criminal justice system. Their work can include finding housing, clothes and food for survivors and their children, providing transportation to and from court appearances and helping people prepare for and understand the often confusing process of criminal court proceedings. The work is also often a matter of life and death in cases that can include helping victims of domestic violence safely leave home.
Staff at these organizations also help victims process the trauma they’ve experienced and how that’s affected by the criminal justice process, which by definition requires them to relive it in court.
The cuts will have ripple effects across communities, said Shira Phelps, the executive director of DOJ’s Office of Crime Victim Services, calling the downsizing of victims’ services a “drastic loss.”
“Victim services is not just about one person gets hurt and experiences trauma, and then they’re helped and they go on with their lives,” Phelps added. “This is really about sort of taking away a foundation for communities that help in every other aspect. Housing, education, all of those different fields are going to feel this really deep impact.”
Since 2000, Congress has put a cap on the amount of money that can be disbursed to states from the fund, which is operated by the U.S. Treasury Department, calculated by a three-year average of court fees, fines and penalties. That number has dropped over the past six years and in March, Congress approved setting the cap at $1.2 billion, a 40% drop from the 2023 fiscal year when the cap was $1.9 billion and a massive decline from 2018 when the cap hit an all-time high of $4.4 billion.
In 2021, Wisconsin Sen. Tammy Baldwin was a co-author of a bill that passed on a bipartisan basis to sustain the fund, adding an additional $1 billion to the fund between 2021 and 2023. But last year, as the cap was set to drop, Baldwin warned a fix would be needed as Wisconsin faced an increase in domestic violence deaths.
“Organizations across Wisconsin rely on this funding to provide support to victims of crime, including victims of sexual assault and domestic violence. Sadly, Wisconsin continues to suffer from an epidemic of domestic violence, and these funds are vital to assist the adults and children harmed by these crimes,” Baldwin wrote in a letter to Attorney General Merrick Garland last October. “The Department must do everything in its power to ensure that these organizations and the victims they serve have the resources they need.”
For the past few years, Wisconsin has been able to put a Band-aid over the cuts with money from COVID-19 relief funds, but with those funds running out, organizations across the state are preparing for a sudden hit. In its request for the 2025-26 budget, DOJ has asked for money to fill the gap. In the meantime, organizations will struggle to provide the services they can.
The loss of funds comes as domestic violence continues to be a major problem in Wisconsin. The state ranks eighth in the nation for the number of women killed by men, and a 2022 report found that domestic violence deaths in Wisconsin were on the rise.
Domestic violence homicide is the most predictable type of homicide, said Courtney Olson, executive director of Rainbow House Domestic Abuse Services, Inc in northeastern Wisconsin. She believes it’s one of the most preventable.
Olson said friends and family members of victims often feel frustrated, wondering why their best friend, sister, daughter or mom doesn’t leave an abusive relationship. She said on average, it takes seven attempts to leave before someone is out the door for good, and leaving is the most dangerous time for victims. Having help from a professional is critical, she said.
“It’s lifesaving work,” Olson said.
Service cuts
The loss of services will be most stark in more rural parts of the state, where local and county governments have less capacity to help with the lost funds and there are fewer private funds available.
Embrace, a non-profit, with headquarters in Ladysmith, Rusk County, has been in existence since 1980, offering shelter and services to survivors of domestic abuse and sexual assault.
It serves four, rural counties in northwest Wisconsin – Barron, Price, Rusk and Washburn.
Embrace is scheduled to face a $531,581 cut of VOCA funds – from $650,000 to $118,419 – that Executive Director Katie Bement said represents about one third of the organization’s budget.
“I’m in shock and don’t even know what to say because it’s just creating such panic ... knowing that there are all these life-saving services statewide being impacted,” said Bement. “It’s not just Embrace that’s experiencing this. People are going to lose access to child abuse services, domestic violence and sexual assault and trafficking (services) and other victim services because of this loss of funding.”
In the spring of 2023, Bement was first informed there would be a cut of the VOCA funds but the estimate was around $400,000 – a significant hit for the organization. Then, in early September this year she learned it would be even deeper – $531,581.
“It was so much worse than we thought,” she said.
Anticipating a $400,000 hit, Embrace changed how it operates its emergency shelter available 24/7 for the last 30 years by removing a staff person from the premises.
“We've always had staff on-site in our emergency shelter who were able to be called out to accompany somebody to a hospital or respond to folks that were staying in shelter,” she said, “and with the original notice of the funding loss coming through, we restructured all of that, so now nobody (no staff person) is physically on site at the shelter anymore.”
With the $531,581 cut, Embrace has had to cut even more services, including sexual assault services for survivors, as well as laying off staff and reducing services to the schools in the four counties.
“There are going to be people out there who die without these services available,” she said. “It’s going to be slower to get services because there’s less staff. I think it’s very unlikely people will be able to get same-day services unless there’s a high risk of homicide.”
She added, “The people who are going to be hurt the most are the folks who are already most harmed and marginalized – QTBIPOC (Queer, Trans, Black, Indigenous People of Color) survivors and rural, low-income survivors.”
Bement said small, rural non-profits like Embrace are feeling the cuts the most because they don’t have private foundations to turn to for funds and the local county government funding is limited: Washburn gives $17,000; Rusk, $12,000 and Price, $2,000.
Barron County used to give Embrace $25,000 a year but after it paid for a Black Lives Matter billboard in the county in 2020 the county supervisors responded negatively and cut all funding.
Earlier in the year, the state Legislature approved some backfill dollars in Act 241 that gave Embrace $271,000 to fund the group’s work through 2024 and into June 2025, but this leaves it nearly $300,000 short and the Act 241 funds are just for one year.
“We can’t really hire anyone because we don’t know if there will be any dollars for next year,” Bement said.
Seven organizations in northeast Wisconsin are seeking donations in the face of looming funding cuts that threaten the current level of services for victims of crimes.
“There’s just really nothing to trim, and that is the story you’re going to hear from every agency,” Tana Koss, vice president of programs and strategy at Family Services of Northeast Wisconsin, said about her organization. “We’re already as efficient as we can be.”
Member organizations are collecting donations for the North Eastern WI (N.E.W.) Victim Service Collaborative Fund. The fund’s webpage says that as of Oct. 1, the region will lose almost $1.8 million each year — over $5 million over the grant cycle. The goal is to raise $3 million in 3 years.
Family Services of Northeast Wisconsin is losing about $690,000 of VOCA funding. Koss said her organization has been going after any potential grant funding, but a gap remains. The gap is down to $365,000 for the coming year, she said. That’s “basically a thousand dollars a day we need to find” to maintain sexual assault core services, Koss said.
“That advocacy support, having someone that you feel really comfortable with, is critical,” Koss said. “And it’s critical not just for that human’s experience, but for the justice system to work. Keeping a person who’s been victimized in this way engaged in the legal process to hold the perpetrators accountable — that’s a long road.”
Koss said barrier-free counseling has been part of the organization’s VOCA-funded effort for over 40 years. It had to be cut completely out of the grant, and the group hasn’t yet found new funding to keep it going. The family services organization has found funding for its child advocacy center for this year.
Koss said the organization hasn’t made staff cuts to sexual assault services, but the $365,000 gap remains for the fiscal year running from 2024 into 2025. In 2025-2026, the shortfall will be $950,000.
“I feel like it is impossible to cut from a team of 10 that’s doing 24/7 in four counties,” Koss said. “Half of the victims we’re serving are children. And 90% of those children know their abuser. So how can we not be responding? Like, we have to figure it out. To me, it’s like, failure is not an option.”
The VOCA reductions will give $351,000 less to the Violence Intervention Project, Inc, which serves Kewaunee County. The organization has had to cut essentially four positions from its staff of nine, executive director Laura Giddley said. A concern for her is staff burnout. She also said the cut may decrease the organization’s outreach and prevention education.
“So it will be impactful within our community, and most importantly, getting resources out to the individuals in our community,” Giddley said.
Koss said multiple agencies help youth hear about safety and relationships, and how to tell an adult if something wrong is happening. She said the agencies are organized and provide experts from multiple points of view, and if any one agency loses funding, it affects the whole.
While rural parts of the state will be the first to see drastic changes such as cuts to service, eventually the ripple effect will harm the whole system.
In Dane County, Domestic Abuse Intervention Services (DAIS) operates a domestic violence shelter, 24-hour hotline and provides numerous services for victims in the county. For now, because of the availability of private dollars in Madison, funds from city and county government and long-term planning, the organization can cover the loss in VOCA funds through measures such as deferring maintenance projects. But that safety net won’t last forever.
“As other programs around the state and in the region close or are profoundly impacted by these cuts, those victims and survivors are going to come to organizations that do remain, such as DAIS or other larger programs,” DAIS executive director Shannon Barry said. “Dane County is already the fastest growing county in the entire state of Wisconsin. We’ve already seen the impact of that growth on demand for our services, and we already have waitlists for some of our services; most notably our homicide prevention shelter – the only one in Dane County.
Cuts in other parts of the state could increase the number of people DAIS needs to help because the organization is prohibited by law from denying service based on geography.
“We have to be available to anyone who comes to us,” Barry said. “Our capacity is not infinite — these cuts to programs across the state create an even bigger burden on the organizations that remains when we’re already stretched to the limit.”
Effect on DA’s offices
Some district attorneys’ offices in Wisconsin will also be receiving less VOCA funding. In Milwaukee County, Chief Deputy District Attorney Kent Lovern is concerned about how the loss of funding may affect the office’s prosecution of crimes. The DA’s office will receive about $334,000 less in VOCA funding than it currently does, according to the Wisconsin DOJ.
VOCA money for the DA’s office funds victim witness advocates, Lovern said. These advocates’ main job is to stay in close contact with victims and witnesses. They give advice, reach out to victims and witnesses and accompany them to court. They also work to make sure the DA’s office is gathering enough information from victims to help determine the right charging decision for a crime.
Going forward, the DA will have two VOCA-funded victim witness advocates instead of eight, Lovern said. The county agreed to provide another four advocates in this year’s budget.
The work of victim witness offices has also become more expensive in recent years because of the 2020 passage of Marsy’s Law, amending the state constitution to give more rights to crime victims. The changes added more responsibilities to the work of these offices without adding any more funding.
The loss of VOCA money is also coming at a time of increasing caseloads, Lovern said.
“We’re charging more cases over the last two years than in previous years, so the caseloads are already growing,” Lovern said. “And this adds just additional work to our staff, many of whom have indicated to us they’re feeling a bit overwhelmed by the additional caseload burden.”
Outagamie County District Attorney Mindy Tempelis said it’s still unclear how the cuts will affect the state, but she’s worried about how an already under-funded aspect of the system can manage and what that will mean for providing people what they need during traumatic times.
“There's a lot of victims of crime who really need the support of government services like the victim witness program and community based organizations that help them,” Tempelis said. “And when those are impacted, that impacts victims’ ability to process what happened to them, be able to get the care that they need to be healthy and to continue to move forward into a survivorship position”
For survivors of crimes, the cuts could “erode trust” in the criminal justice system, according to Erin Welsh, deputy director of the DOJ crime victim services office.
“I think for survivors, it really has the potential to erode trust in the system,” she said. “‘You know, I thought I was going to have these rights, I thought I was going to have these services, and you are not able to give them to me.’ And that's unreasonable for asking folks in the criminal justice system to do that with nothing, and that's entirely unfair to just leave survivors hanging and expect to get something from the criminal justice process. So I think that trust that it erodes has a real impact in how communities engage with the criminal justice system.”
One of the biggest fears about the cuts is that if people lose trust in the criminal justice system because it doesn’t support victims of domestic and sexual violence, these already underreported crimes will be less likely to be reported.
“I don't think it is possible to overstate how this will impact [reporting of crimes],” Phelps said. “The trust in the system is hard anyway, and if we are not even able to uphold and protect their rights under the constitution, under statute, why in the world would anybody put themselves out there, put their trauma out there, put their the worst thing that ever happened to them out in public if they don't even believe that their rights will be protected at a bare minimum, let alone all the other critical resources and services that are provided? If we can't even ensure that — there's no reason anyone would trust us.”
Correction: This story initially said it takes seven incidents of abuse before someone leaves an abusive relationship. It has been corrected to say it takes seven attempts to leave.