Wisconsin voters line up outside of a Milwaukee polling place on Nov. 5, 2024. Wisconsin U.S. Senate candidate Eric Hovde is one of the Republican politicians who sowed doubt about the integrity of this year’s election. (Andy Manis | Getty Images)
President-elect Donald Trump may have quieted his lies about widespread voter fraud after his win earlier this month, but the impact of his effort to cast doubt on the integrity of American elections lingers on.
Although this post-election period has been markedly calmer than the aftermath of the 2020 presidential election, there were isolated flare-ups of Republican candidates borrowing a page from Trump’s playbook to claim that unsatisfactory election results were illegitimate.
In Wisconsin, Republican U.S. Senate challenger Eric Hovde spread unsubstantiated rumors about “last-minute” absentee ballots in Milwaukee that he said flipped the outcome of the race. Though he conceded to incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin nearly two weeks after the election, his rhetoric helped stoke a spike in online conspiracy theories. The Milwaukee Election Commission disputed his claims, saying they “lack any merit.”
In North Carolina, Republican state Senate leader Phil Berger told reporters last week he feared that the vote-counting process for a state Supreme Court seat was rigged for Democrats. Karen Brinson Bell, the head of the State Board of Elections, skewered Berger for his comments, saying they could inspire violence.
And in Arizona, Republican U.S. Senate candidate Kari Lake, who has spent two years disputing her defeat in the 2022 governor’s race, hasn’t acknowledged her Senate loss. While she thanked her supporters in a video posted to X, the platform formerly called Twitter, she stopped short of conceding to Democratic U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego.
Republicans’ disinformation campaigns have caused Americans’ confidence in elections to plummet and exposed local election officials to threats and harassment, and some observers worry about a return of the GOP’s destructive rhetoric the next time they lose.
“We have to turn this rhetoric down,” said Jay Young, senior director of voting and democracy for Common Cause, a voting rights group. “There cannot be this continued attack on this institution.”
Still, many politicians who either denied the 2020 election results or criticized their local voting processes won election. In Arizona, for example, voters chose state Rep. Justin Heap, a Republican, to lead the election office in Maricopa County, home to Phoenix and the largest jurisdiction in the critical swing state. Heap ran on a “voter confidence” platform and suggested at a Trump rally that Maricopa’s election office is a “national laughingstock.”
Trump tapped former Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi to oversee the U.S. Department of Justice. Bondi, a Republican, served as an attorney for Trump while he disputed the results in 2020. She could use her position as U.S. attorney general to prosecute election officials involved in that election, as Trump promised in an X post in September.
While the rhetoric around stolen elections has been somewhat muted among the GOP ranks since Trump’s victory, conservatives attempted to flip the “election denial” script on Democrats in at least one race.
We have to turn this rhetoric down.
– Jay Young, Common Cause's senior director of voting and democracy
In Pennsylvania, Democratic U.S. Sen. Bob Casey refused to concede defeat until last Thursday, two weeks after The Associated Press called the race for Republican challenger David McCormick. Casey lost by fewer than 16,000 votes, less than half a percentage point.
Casey said he wanted to see the results of an automatic recount and various court cases filed on his behalf, but Republicans jumped on his refusal to bow out quickly.
Last week, Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, a Republican who resisted pressure from Trump in 2020 to “find” votes after he lost the state, lambasted Casey for not conceding the Senate race.
“Election denialism needs to end, now,” Raffensperger wrote in a statement. “We are a country of laws and principles, not of men and personalities. Do your job! Follow the law. Accept election results or lose your country.”
Even as Republicans mostly toned down their rhetoric this year, some left-wing social media accounts repeated a debunked conspiracy theory that Starlink, the internet provider owned by billionaire and Trump supporter Elon Musk, changed vote counts.
Those posts, however, aren’t comparable to GOP election denialism, according to the University of Washington’s Center for an Informed Public, which fights strategic misinformation.
“While the claims are similar, the rumoring dynamics on the left are markedly different due to the lack of endorsement or amplification by left-leaning influencers, candidates, or party elites,” the center posted last week.
Young, of Common Cause, said it’s clear that election disinformation of any kind has a devastating impact on the local officials tasked with administering the vote.
Threats to election workers continued even after Election Day. Bomb threats were called into election offices in California, Minnesota, Oregon and other states, forcing evacuations as workers were tallying ballots.
But this was just a slice of the onslaught many officials faced over the past four years. Local election officials need the resources to beef up the way they fight disinformation and physical attacks, Young said.
“We should be doing better by them,” he said.
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In the early morning following Election Day in 2020, Claire Woodall, then Milwaukee’s elections chief, mistakenly left behind a USB stick carrying vote totals at the city’s central absentee ballot counting facility. Election conspiracy theorists quickly seized on the mistake, accusing Woodall of rigging the election.
Their claims were baseless, but the mistake increased scrutiny on the city’s election staff and led Woodall to create a checklist to make sure workers at central count didn’t overlook any critical steps in the future.
This year, despite the checklist, Milwaukee election staff at central count made another procedural mistake — and once again left the door open to conspiracy theorists.
Somebody — city officials haven’t said who — overlooked the second step outlined on the checklist and failed to lock and seal the hatch covers on the facility’s 13 tabulators before workers began tabulating ballots. For hours, while counting proceeded, the machines’ on-off switches and USB ports were left exposed.
Results from the large and heavily Democratic city ultimately came in at 4 a.m. on Wednesday, only a few hours later than expected, but a time that conspiracy theorists implied was a suspicious hour for vote totals to change. Their posts echoed claims from 2020 that used sensationalized language like “late-night ballot dumps” to describe the reality that in big cities, absentee ballots take time — yes, sometimes late into the night — to collect, deliver, verify and count accurately.
In fact, the results in Milwaukee couldn’t have arrived much sooner. Under state law, election officials can’t start processing the hundreds of thousands of absentee ballots until the morning of Election Day. This year, they got a late start because of delays in getting workers settled, but were still expecting to be done around 2 or 3 a.m. Then it became clear the midday decision to redo the count would add more time to the process.
But those explanations have done little to curb the false conspiracy theories that have been proliferating on the right, including from losing U.S. Senate candidate Eric Hovde.
Election officials have for years known that the slightest mistakes, or even perceived errors, can trigger false claims. In this instance, the failure to follow a critical security step occurred in the state’s most scrutinized election facility, despite new procedures meant to reduce such errors.
For people with a conspiratorial mindset, such an oversight can’t be explained away as just a mistake, said Mert Bayar, a postdoctoral scholar at the University of Washington’s Center for an Informed Public. The errors can provide conspiracy theorists a feeling of validation because those errors make a “conspiracy theory more realistic … more believable.”
For those people, he said, election errors are instead perceived as “part of a plot to steal an election.”
Instead of considering the 2024 Milwaukee mistake a simple oversight, Bayar said, conspiracy theorists may think that the tabulator doors “cannot be left unlocked unless they’re trying something tricky, something stealth.”
Genya Coulter, senior director of stakeholder relations at the Open Source Election Technology Institute, said Milwaukee can still fine-tune its processes and checklists.
“I don’t think anybody needs to be demonized,” she said, “but I do think that there needs to be some retraining. That would be helpful.”
Milwaukee error initially drew complaints, but not suspicion
It was an election observer who first noticed the open tabulator doors and alerted election officials. Around 2 p.m., Milwaukee’s current election chief, Paulina Gutiérrez, went from tabulator to tabulator, monitored by Democratic and Republican representatives, to lock all of the doors. Two hours later, she made the call to rerun all ballots through the tabulators.
The tabulators had been in full view of partisan observers and the media, but behind a barrier that only election officials and some designated observers, like representatives for both political parties who accompany election officials during some election processes, can enter. Any tampering would have been evident, Gutiérrez said, and there was no sign of that.
For that reason, some Republicans at central count opposed recounting all the ballots and risking a delay. U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson, who went to central count on Election Day to learn more about the error, said he didn’t think anything nefarious happened, though he said the election operation there was “grossly incompetent.”
Coulter said the decision to start the counting over again was “the right call for transparency’s sake.”
Hovde, who lost his Senate race in a state that Donald Trump carried, invoked conspiratorial language to describe what happened.
“The results from election night were disappointing, particularly in light of the last minute absentee ballots that were dropped in Milwaukee at 4 a.m. flipping the outcome,” he said Monday in his concession speech. “There are many troubling issues around these absentee ballots.”
In an earlier video, Hovde criticized Milwaukee’s election operation and spread false claims about the proportion of votes that his opponent, U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin, received from absentee ballots. That led to a skyrocketing number of posts baselessly alleging election fraud in Wisconsin.
In a statement, the Milwaukee Election Commission said it “unequivocally refutes Eric Hovde’s baseless claims regarding the integrity of our election process.”
Why Milwaukee’s results were late
There’s no proof of fraud or malfeasance in Milwaukee or anywhere else in Wisconsin on Election Day. But a few key factors combined to delay Milwaukee’s results until 4 a.m.
First, Milwaukee central count workers started processing and tabulating ballots around 9 a.m., long after the 7 a.m. start time allowed under state law. The delay was a matter of getting dozens of central count workers organized and at the right station in the large facility.
The more high-profile one was the failure to close the tabulators, which prompted the decision to count 31,000 absentee ballots all over again.
But both of those slowdowns could have been less consequential had Wisconsin election officials been able to process absentee ballots on the Monday before Election Day, as some other states allow. Such a change could have allowed election officials to review absentee ballot envelopes, verify and check in absentee voters but not count votes. An effort to allow election officials to do so stalled in the state Senate this year.
Checklist change could ‘improve transparency’
Milwaukee election officials may have avoided the situation entirely — and could avoid similar situations in the future — by modifying their central count checklist, said Coulter, from the Open Source Election Technology Institute.
Currently, the checklist states that at the start of Election Day, the tabulator doors should be locked and sealed. It’s not clear why that step was skipped. Gutiérrez didn’t respond to questions for comment about who was in charge of the process or whether that person faced disciplinary action.
But the step likely wouldn’t have been overlooked, Coulter said, if the checklist required the official in charge of locking the tabulators to be accompanied by a representative from each major political party.
“That’s a relatively painless change that … I think it would improve transparency,” Coulter said.
“There needs to be an emphasis on having two people from different political affiliations performing all duties that involve the tabulator,” she said.
Another pre-processing step on the checklist calls for people working at the tabulators to make sure the numbered seals pasted over the tabulator doors are intact. It doesn’t call for checking that the tabulator doors are locked.
To avoid a repeat situation, Coulter said, “they should also check to make sure that the door to the power button is properly locked, and what to do if it isn’t.”
Election officials recognize the scrutiny they face over errors, Coulter said, and they sometimes focus more on avoiding mistakes than running election operations.
“It’s like a racecar driver … If you focus on the wall, you’re going to wind up hitting that wall,” she said. “You have to train your mind to think about the curve and not the wall, but unfortunately, it’s really hard for election officials to do that, especially in high-pressure jurisdictions.”
Alexander Shur is a reporter for Votebeat based in Wisconsin. Contact Shur at ashur@votebeat.org.
Eric Hovde speaks in a video posted on X Tuesday, Nov. 12, in which he questions how ballots were counted in his election loss to Sen. Tammy Baldwin that was called early Nov. 6. Hovde did not concede then, only doing so on Monday, Nov. 18.. (Screenshot | Hovde campaign on X)
Poor Eric Hovde. His protestations that the election was rigged against him have fallen on deaf ears. Hovde’s grudging concession to Wisconsin Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin, who beat him by 29,000 votes to hang onto her seat in the U.S. Senate, came as Republicans across the country rejoiced at winning control of the White House and both chambers of Congress. Like his Tom Selleck mustache, Hovde’s election denial is way out of style.
Hovde’s baseless accusations during his very tardy concession speech about the questionable “legitimacy” of “absentee ballots that were dropped in Milwaukee at 4 a.m.” is so 2020. This year, Trump won all the swing states and, unlike last time, when he lost to Joe Biden, allegations of illegal voting, fraud, recounts, court challenges and death threats aimed at election officials have disappeared like morning dew in the Southern California sun.
Hovde heads home to Laguna Beach, California, a lonely, sore loser instead of storming the U.S. Capitol as a champion for MAGA grievance with his Trump-supporting friends.
“I entered the race for the U.S. Senate because I love our country and I’m deeply concerned about its direction,” Hovde declared in his concession speech Monday. By then, the country’s direction had taken a sharp right turn.
The top concerns that Hovde, an enthusiastic Trump supporter, said motivated him to run — government spending, border security and international relations — are now firmly in MAGA hands.
“Lastly, as I’ve repeatedly expressed, I’m very worried about the political divisions and rhetoric that are tearing our country apart,” Hovde declared.
This last worry led him, Hovde said, to run a campaign that “focused on issues instead of personal attacks.” He followed this assertion by besmirching the integrity of Wisconsin election officials, denouncing his opponent as a liar and blaming Democrats for underhandedly stealing the election from him by allowing third-party candidates to run and by spreading rumors that he’s a California bank owner (a verifiable fact). For good measure, he added, “Equally concerning is the large segments of the press that don’t care to fact-check these lies and even helped propagate misinformation to help their preferred candidate.”
Anyone who watched the debate between Hovde and Baldwin might be surprised to hear Hovde congratulate himself for running a high-minded campaign rooted in the “values of integrity and morality.”
“The one thing you’ve perfected in Washington is your ability to lie,” Hovde sneered at Baldwin at the start of the debate. While Baldwin focused on her long record of detailed policy work, reaching across the aisle to pass bills that helped Wisconsinites, Hovde relied heavily on unsubstantiated accusations and repeatedly called out Baldwin’s girlfriend, a Wall Street investment adviser, demanding that she release financial information she is not required to disclose and unsubtly calling attention to the fact that Baldwin, an out lesbian, is in a same-sex relationship.
This week, Baldwin is back in Washington doing what she does best — focusing on unsexy issues that matter to her constituents (see her Wednesday press release: “Baldwin Calls on USDA to Provide Emergency Aid for Gamebird Farmers Hit By Tornadoes”). Hovde, who admitted during the debate that he doesn’t know much about what’s in the Farm Bill and then griped afterward to rightwing talk radio host Vicky McKenna: “Like, I’m supposed to study [the bill] in depth?!” can’t imagine why Wisconsin chose Baldwin over him.
There was nothing nefarious about Baldwin’s win. She received a predictable boost from absentee voters in heavily Democratic Milwaukee, and as she has done in her previous statewide races, and she got a lot of votes in Republican-leaning areas of the state where she has spent a great deal of time listening to her constituents and championing their interests in bills that help Wisconsin agriculture and manufacturing. That’s the kind of work that made her the only Democrat to win the endorsement of the Wisconsin Farm Bureau.
Hovde distinguished himself, according to The New York Times, by becoming the first prominent Republican in the nation to suggest the election was rigged, parroting Trump’s 2020 conspiracy theories.
Fortunately, this year Hovde’s complaints are just one man’s sour grapes. But in his incivility, his poor grasp of policy, and, most of all, in refusing to concede for so long and, even when he did, questioning the integrity of the election, Hovde made a divisive political environment more toxic.
As Sam Liebert, Wisconsin state director of All Voting is Local told Erik Gunn, “The rhetoric of questioning our democracy is more than just words. … It contributes to chaos and confusion, which undermines public trust in our elections and the officials who administer them.”
As Hovde himself might put it, the kind of campaign he ran is tearing our country apart. Fortunately for Wisconsin, in this case, it’s over.
Milwaukee counts absentee ballots at a central location and reports the totals only when they are finished.
Those results were delayed a few hours this year because election officials in Milwaukee recounted about 30,000 absentee ballots during the night of Nov. 3 into Nov. 4 because doors on the ballot tabulators were not properly sealed.
In a Nov. 11 social media post, user End Wokeness claimed a 3:30 a.m. “ballot dump” lost candidate Eric Hovde the Senate race in Wisconsin. The chart in the post shows no evidence of fraud, just Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s vote total increasing when Milwaukee reported its absentee ballot results.
Baldwin received 82% of votes from the city’s absentee ballots and 78% overall, the Milwaukee Election Commission reported.
Wisconsin law requires clerks to post the number of total outstanding absentee ballots by the close of polls.
Baldwin won with 49.4% of the vote to Hovde’s 48.5% statewide, according to unofficial results.
This fact brief is responsive to conversations such as this one.
Eric Hovde concedes the 2024 Wisconsin Senate race on social media Monday. (Screenshot | Hovde campaign X account)
Republican candidate Eric Hovde conceded Monday in the U.S. Senate race after losing to incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin, forgoing a recount while continuing to criticize the longstanding practice in which absentee ballots in Milwaukee were counted in the early morning hours after Election Day.
Hovde conceded a few hours before the Wisconsin Elections Commission reported Monday that all 72 counties in Wisconsin had completed their election canvass, triggering a three-day window for Hovde to seek a recount in the race.
A developer and the owner of a West Coast bank, Hovde had declined to concede in the immediate aftermath of The Associated Press calling the race for Baldwin in the early morning hours of Wednesday, Nov. 6.
A week later, he posted a video in which he said he would await the completion of the canvass process while airing complaints about the vote count. His criticisms focused largely on the fact that about 108,000 absentee ballots that were not counted in Milwaukee until the early morning after Election Day changed the outcome of the election total.
Hovde’s remarks drew widespread criticism, with the Milwaukee Election Commission refuting implications of impropriety. Milwaukee’s absentee ballots are consolidated and delivered to the city’s central counting facility to be tabulated, and a bill to allow them to be processed starting the day before the election died after GOP leaders in the state Senate declined to put it on the calendar.
Republican analysts also said, both on Election Day and the next week, that the city’s late-night tabulation of the absentee ballots was standard practice and that its history of having a heavy tilt toward Democrats was predictable.
Nevertheless, Hovde reiterated his complaint Monday in the course of his concession speech.
“The results from election night were disappointing, particularly in light of the last-minute absentee ballots that were dropped in Milwaukee at 4 a.m., flipping the outcome,” he said. “There are many troubling issues around these absentee ballots and their timing, which I addressed in my last statement.”
Hovde said supporters had urged him “to challenge the election results,” but that “without a detailed review of all the ballots and their legitimacy, which will be difficult to obtain in the courts, a request for a recount would serve no purpose because you will just be recounting the same ballots regardless of their integrity.”
Hovde said he had decided instead to concede out of “my desire to not add to political strife through a contentious recount.”
Hovde also criticized Democrats’ support of two third-party candidates, one running on a platform of supporting Donald Trump and the other as a Libertarian, contending that without them he would have won the race.
Wisconsin Republican Eric Hovde conceded defeat on Monday to Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin in their U.S. Senate race, saying he did not want to “add to political strife through a contentious recount” even though he raised debunked election conspiracies.
Hovde, who was backed by President-elect Donald Trump, could have requested a recount because his margin of defeat was less than 1 percentage point, at about 29,000 votes. He would have had to pay for it himself.
Baldwin’s campaign referred requests for comment on Hovde’s concession on Monday to her victory speech. In that address, Baldwin pledged to work with Trump when possible but also vowed to fight him to protect the national health care law and abortion rights.
Hovde, in his concession video, repeated claims he made saying there were “many troubling issues” related to absentee ballots in Milwaukee and when they were reported. Republicans, Democrats and nonpartisan election leaders all refuted the claims of impropriety Hovde made.
“Without a detailed review of all the ballots and their legitimacy, which will be difficult to obtain in the courts, a request for a recount would serve no purpose because you will just be recounting the same ballots regardless of their integrity,” Hovde said Monday.
Although there is no evidence of wrongdoing in the election, many Hovde supporters questioned a surge in votes for Baldwin that were reported by Milwaukee around 4:30 a.m. the morning after the election. Those votes put Baldwin over the top.
The votes were the tabulation of absentee ballots from Milwaukee. Those ballots are counted at a central location and reported all at once, often well after midnight on Election Day. Elections officials for years have made clear that those ballots are reported later than usual because of the sheer number that have to be counted and the fact that state law does not allow for processing them before polls open.
Republicans and Democrats alike, along with state and Milwaukee election leaders, warned in the days and weeks leading up to the election that the Milwaukee absentee ballots would be reported late and cause a huge influx of Democratic votes.
Hovde also repeated his complaint about the candidacy of Thomas Leager, who ran as a member of the America First Party. Leager, a far-right candidate who was recruited by Democratic operatives and donors to run as a conservative, finished a distant fourth.
Republicans supported independent presidential candidates Cornel West and Jill Stein in efforts to take votes away from Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris. And Robert F. Kennedy Jr. tried to get his name removed from the ballot in Wisconsin and other swing states after he backed Trump.
In the Wisconsin Senate race, Leager got about 400 fewer votes than the margin between Baldwin and Hovde. But Hovde claimed on Monday that he would have won the Senate race if Leager had not been on the ballot.
Baldwin declared victory after The Associated Press called the race for her on Nov. 6. She outperformed Harris, who lost Wisconsin by about as many votes as Baldwin defeated Hovde.
The Baldwin win came in the face of Democratic losses nationwide that allowed Republicans to take control of the Senate.
Her win was the narrowest of her three Senate races. Baldwin won in 2012 by almost 6 percentage points and in 2018 by nearly 11 points.
Hovde, a multimillionaire bank owner and real estate developer, first ran for Senate in 2012 but lost in the Republican primary. He poured millions of dollars of his own money into his losing campaign this year.
Hovde on Monday did not rule out another political campaign in the future. Some Republicans have floated him as a potential candidate for governor in 2026.
Wisconsin Watch is a nonprofit and nonpartisan newsroom. Subscribe to our newsletter to get our investigative stories and Friday news roundup.This story is published in partnership with The Associated Press.
Flanked by Sam Liebert, left, and Scott Thompson, center, Nick Ramos of the Wisconsin Democracy Campaign addresses reporters Thursday outside a Wisconsin state office building. The three criticized Republican Senate candidate Eric Hovde for not conceding after vote tallies reported that Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin finished the election with 29,000 more votes than Hovde. (Wisconsin Examiner photo)
Voting rights advocates joined the calls Thursday for Republican Senate candidate Eric Hovde to back away from accusations he made earlier this week that something went wrong with vote-counting in the election Hovde lost to Sen. Tammy Baldwin.
“This is a direct attempt to cast doubt on our free and fair elections. And this is not only disappointing, it’s unnecessary,” said Sam Liebert, Wisconsin state director for All Voting is Local at a news conference Thursday morning. The nonpartisan, nonprofit organization advocates for policies to ensure voting access, particularly for voters of color and other marginalized groups.
“The rhetoric of questioning our democracy is more than just words, but it contributes to chaos and confusion, which undermines public trust in our elections and the officials who administer them,” Liebert said.
The news conference, held outside the state office building that houses the Wisconsin Elections Commission, was organized by the Wisconsin Democracy Campaign, a nonpartisan voting rights and campaign finance reform advocacy group.
Speakers emphasized Wisconsin’s history of ticket-splitting and the near equal division of Republican and Democratic voters. For that reason, they said, victories last week by Republican Donald Trump in the presidential race and Baldwin, a Democrat, in the Senate race shouldn’t be viewed as remarkable or suspicious.
“Donald Trump won, Tammy Baldwin won, Kamala Harris lost, and Erik Hovde lost,” said Scott Thompson, an attorney with the nonprofit voting rights and democracy law firm Law Forward. “The people of Wisconsin know it, and I think Eric Hovde knows it too.”
“What you’re doing is creating divisions, and that cannot be accepted here in Wisconsin,” said Nick Ramos, executive director of the Wisconsin Democracy Campaign.
During the campaign, Hovde “said all the right things — he talked about how he would honor the election results, talked about … there’s no time for us to continue these types of conspiracies and lies,” Ramos said. But since the election, he added, Hovde has shifted his attitude.
Hovde so far has declined to concede the U.S. Senate election, although The Associated Press called the race for Baldwin, the Democratic two-term incumbent, early Wednesday, Nov. 6. With 99% of the vote counted, Baldwin had a 29,000-vote lead over Hovde, a margin of slightly less than 1%. She declared victory after the AP call.
Eric Hovde speaks in a video posted on Tuesday in which he questions how ballots were counted in his election loss to Sen. Tammy Baldwin. (Screenshot | Hovde campaign on X)
Hovde’s first public statement came a week after Election Day. In a video posted on social media Tuesday, he said he was waiting for the vote canvass to be completed before he would comment on the outcome.
“Once the final information is available and all options are reviewed, I will announce my decision on how I will proceed,” Hovde said.
Nevertheless, Hovde questioned the vote totals that were reported from Milwaukee’s central count facility, where the city’s absentee ballots are consolidated and tallied.
About 108,000 absentee and provisional ballots were counted in the early hours last Wednesday, with Baldwin garnering 82% of those votes, according to the Milwaukee Election Commission. In Milwaukee ballots cast in-person Tuesday, Baldwin won 75% of the vote.
Both Republican and Democratic analysts have pointed out that Democrats have disproportionately voted absentee over the last several elections and that the outcome Milwaukee reported last week was in line with those trends.
In his video, however, Hovde highlighted the late-counted ballots. He falsely called Baldwin’s lead in that tally “nearly 90%,” claiming that was “statistically improbable” in comparison with the in-person vote count.
Hovde said that because of “inconsistencies” in the data, “Many people have reached out and urged me to contest the election.”
Ramos pointed out Thursday that Wisconsin lawmakers had introduced a bill with bipartisan support that would have allowed election clerks to begin counting absentee ballots the day before Election Day — ending the late-night tally change from absentee votes that have become a regular feature in Milwaukee.
The legislation passed the Assembly but died in the state Senate. “We have folks in the state Legislature that would rather play political games and would rather see moments like this than actually fix the problem,” Ramos said.
While Hovde spoke skeptically about the vote count in his video, in a talk radio interview after it was posted he described the election outcome as a “loss.”
Hovde is “talking out of both sides of his mouth right now,” Ramos said. “And so, on the one hand, we get to hear him say things like, you know, ‘It’s going to take me a while to get over this loss,’ and then we get to watch a video that gets broadly disseminated across X and Facebook and Instagram, where … he’s literally talking about how he does not believe what happened in Milwaukee and how the numbers shifted [in the ballot counting] aren’t accurate.”
In his video Hovde said that “asking for a recount is a serious decision that requires careful consideration.”
Counties must send their final vote canvass reports to the Wisconsin Elections Commission by Tuesday, Nov. 19. Candidates then have three days to make a recount request.
State law allows candidates to seek a recount if they lose by a margin of less than 1%, but it requires the candidate to pay the cost if the margin is more than 0.25%.
“He certainly can pursue a recount, although it looks like he’s going to have to pay for it himself,” said Thompson. “[But] Eric Hovde does not have the right to baselessly spread false claims and election lies.”
Recounts don’t usually change who wins
Election recounts are rare, but recounts that change the original election outcome are rarer still.
In areview of recounts in statewide elections over the last quarter-century, the organization FairVote found only a handful in which the outcome changed, all of them in which the margin of victory was just a fraction of the less-than-1% margin that separates Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin, who leads Republican Eric Hovde by 29,000 votes.
FairVote looked at nearly 7,000 statewide elections from the year 2000 through 2023 and found a total of 36 recounts. Recounts changed the outcome of just three of those elections, however, FairVote found, and none of those were in Wisconsin.
In each of the three recounts the original margin of victory was less than 0.06%.
Wisconsin has 4.27 million inactive voters and 3.66 million registered voters.
Inactive voters are not registered and are not eligible to vote unless they re-register on or before an Election Day.
Republican Eric Hovde added the numbers together in claiming Wisconsin has “almost 8 million registered voters on our voter rolls with only 3.5 million active voters.”
Hovde raised election administration questions one week after losing Nov. 5, 2024, to U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis. Unofficially, Baldwin won by less than 1 percentage point.
People are made inactive when they die, move and register in another state, are convicted of a felony, are adjudicated incompetent to vote, or have their name purged.
Purging occurs every two years. The Wisconsin Elections Commission is required to make registered voters inactive if they have not voted in the past four years and have not responded to a mailing about their registration status.
This fact brief is responsive to conversations such as this one.
Eric Hovde speaks in a video posted on X Tuesday in which he questions how ballots were counted in his election loss to Sen. Tammy Baldwin. Hovde has not conceded despite the race having been called for Baldwin early Nov. 6. (Screenshot | Hovde campaign on X)
Breaking a six-day silence after unofficial returns showed him losing to Sen. Tammy Baldwin, whom AP declared the winner of the Wisconsin U.S. Senate race by less than 1 percentage point, Republican Senate candidate Eric Hovde on Tuesday criticized the counting process and said he would wait to decide whether to seek a recount.
In a subsequent talk radio interview, however, Hovde appeared to acknowledge that he had lost the election.
“It’s the most painful loss I’ve ever experienced,” Hovde told Jessica McBride, the guest host on Mark Belling’s show on Milwaukee station WISN 1130. The remark was first reported by the Associated Press.
There has been no evidence of irregularities in the vote count for the Nov. 5 election, which Baldwin won by about 29,000 votes according to unofficial totals reported by Wisconsin’s 72 counties. Counties are currently reviewing the ballots and will submit their official results to the Wisconsin Elections Commission by Nov. 19. The commission completes its certification of the vote by Dec. 1.
Prior to his talk show appearance Tuesday, Hovdeposted a video on X, formerly Twitter, in which he said that he hadn’t spoken about the outcome since election night because “I believe it’s better not to comment until I have the facts.”
Supporters “have reached out and urged me to contest the election,” he said. “While I’m deeply concerned, asking for a recount is a serious decision that requires careful consideration.”
Hovde said differences between the count of registered voters and ballots cast in some Milwaukee wards raised questions, and he also questioned a batch of absentee ballots counted in the early hours Wednesday that heavily favored Baldwin.
Records of registered voters as of Election Day don’t include people who register at the polls, however. In addition, absentee ballots in Milwaukee often get counted later in the process and historically have included a large proportion of Democratic voters.
Hovde also claimed the state has “almost 8 million registered voters on our voter rolls with only 3.5 million active voters.”
The Wisconsin Elections Commission website includes anexplanation of the state’s voter registration database, which is separated into two sections, one for inactive voters and one for active voters.
Only active voters are included in the poll books that go to Wisconsin election clerks and poll workers.
The list of inactive voters, which the commission is required by state law to maintain, includes people who “die, move and register in another state, are convicted of a felony, are adjudicated incompetent to vote, or are made inactive through statutory voter list maintenance processes,” according to the elections commission. The inactive voter list is “a historical public record, and cannot be deleted.”
Democrats, Republicans join in pushing back
Hovde’s comments were met with a barrage of criticism.
“The Milwaukee Election Commission (MEC) unequivocally refutes Eric Hovde’s baseless claims regarding the integrity of our election process,” the commission said in a statement Tuesday, asserting that its operations were transparent and followed established laws and procedures.
Because Wisconsin does not allow absentee ballots to be processed before Election Day, “large numbers of absentee ballots” are reported late at night. At the same time, according to the statement, with same-day registration, “this historic election saw record-breaking turnout as many newly registered voters exercised their right to support their preferred candidates.”
Criticism also came from Baldwin and Democrats as well as prominent GOP figures, nonpartisan analysts and a bipartisan pro-democracy organization.
“Eric Hovde is spreading lies from the darkest corners of the internet to undercut our free and fair elections,” Baldwinposted on her campaign account on X. “Wisconsin voters made their voices heard. It’s time for Hovde to stop this disgusting attack on our democracy and concede.”
“Mr. Hovde is well within his rights to request a recount and ensure that the vote count is indeed accurate, but questioning the integrity of Wisconsin elections is an avenue that only sows distrust in the system moving forward,” declared theDemocracy Defense Project, made up of Republican and Democratic political veterans
The statement was attributed to former Wisconsin Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, a Democrat; former Attorney General JB Van Hollen, a Republican; former U.S. Rep. Scott Klug, a Republican; and former Democratic Party of Wisconsin Chair Mike Tate — the joint leaders of the Democracy Defense Project’s Wisconsin branch.
Joe Handrick, a Republican election analyst, predicted on Election Day a late-breaking boost to Democrats in Milwaukee, and reiterated that in afollow-up post Monday on X.
Bill McCoshen, a GOP lobbyist whose political career dates to the administration of former Gov. Tommy Thompson,said Tuesday morning on X that differences like the one between the number of votes for former President Donald Trump, who carried Wisconsin, and for Hovde are “not uncommon.”
The gap of just under 54,000 votes between the two is easily explained by people not voting all the way down the ballot and by third-party candidates, of which there were two in the Senate race, McCoshen wrote. “It’s neither complicated, nor a conspiracy.”
Barry Burden, professor in the Department of Political Science and director of the Elections Research Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. (Bryce Richter / UW-Madison)
Barry Burden, who directs the UW-Madison’s Election Research Center, said Hovde’s decision to not yet concede represents a new but troublesome trend.
“It’s been happening in the United States over the last few years, of candidates not conceding immediately or graciously as often as they did in the past,” Burden told the Wisconsin Examiner. Donald Trump’s refusal to concede his reelection loss in 2020 “provided a model for some candidates.”
Wisconsin law qualifies Hovde to seek a recount since he finished less than one percentage point behind Baldwin. Nonetheless, “the margin seems so large that I can’t imagine a recount reversing the outcome,” Burden said. “There’s probably no election in U.S. history where that has happened — elections need to be very close for a recount to produce anything different.”
An explicit concession “is one of the things that shows us that democracy is working,” according to University of Wisconsin-Madison political scientist Mike Wagner. “Democracy is for the losing side because they get a chance to try again in the next election, and admitting when you lose is a critical factor required for the maintenance of democracies.”
Wagner is faculty director of the UW-Madison Center for Communication & Civic Renewal. How the ballot counting unfolded Tuesday night and early Wednesday was no surprise, he said, and absentee ballots are counted according to state law.
“It’s sad when a candidate for office raises unfounded questions about the Integrity of an election,” Wagner said.
Wisconsin Republican Eric Hovde admitted Tuesday that he lost the U.S. Senate race to Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin, but refused to concede and instead repeated misleading claims about the election while he considers a recount.
Hovde preleased a video saying he wanted to gather more information and assess whether to seek a recount. But in a later interview on 1130-AM radio, Hovde admitted he lost while still stopping short of conceding.
“I will definitely pick myself up and move on and fight for our wonderful country and state, which is why I got into this whole thing,” Hovde said. “It’s the most painful loss I’ve ever experienced.”
Hovde can request a recount because his margin of defeat was less than 1 percentage point, at about 29,000 votes. But he hasn’t said yet whether he will request one, explaining in a video directed at his supporters that he wants to review all of the information and options that are available.
“This is a difficult decision because I want to honor your support and, at the same time, bring closure to this election for our state,” Hovde said in the video posted on the social media platform X.
Hovde pointed to what he claimed were irregularities with the vote results. There is no evidence of any wrongdoing in the election, the results of which are still being reviewed by counties before they submit the canvassed totals to the state by Nov. 19 for certification by Dec. 1.
Democrats, and even some Republicans, immediately called out Hovde for what they said was a perpetuation of lies about the integrity of the election.
“Stop trying to erode trust in our elections (and I say that as someone who supported Hovde),” said Jim Villa, a longtime Republican who previously worked in the Legislature and Milwaukee county executive’s office under Scott Walker before Walker became governor.
“That grift needs to stop!” Villa posted on X.
Baldwin campaign spokesperson Andrew Mamo accused Hovde of “sowing doubt about our very democracy.”
“Leaders on both sides of the aisle should condemn the lies he’s spreading and the pathetic campaign he continues to run,” Mamo said. “Tammy Baldwin has won this race and there is only one thing for Eric Hovde to do: concede.”
John D. Johnson, a Marquette University researcher and data scientist, reacted to Hovde’s video on X by saying, “Reckless disregard for the actual facts here.”
Hovde also raised concerns about precincts in Milwaukee where turnout was higher than the number of registered voters posted on the county’s website. That’s because the original number posted didn’t account for people who registered to vote on Election Day, something that happened in both Republican and Democratic parts of the state in the election.
The bipartisan Milwaukee Election Commission put out a statement refuting Hovde’s “baseless claims.” The commission said it was “fully confident that Mr. Hovde’s accusations lack any merit.”
Andrew Iverson, executive director of the Wisconsin Republican Party, said that “Hovde has the right to request a recount and pursue legal remedies to address whatever concerns he may have regarding the election.”
Although there is no evidence of wrongdoing in the election, many Hovde supporters have questioned a surge in votes for Baldwin that were reported by Milwaukee around 4:30 a.m. the morning after the election. Those votes put Baldwin over the top.
The votes were the tabulation of absentee ballots from Milwaukee. Those ballots are counted at a central location and reported all at once, often well after midnight on Election Day. Elections officials for years have made clear that those ballots are reported later than usual because of the sheer number that have to be counted and the fact that state law does not allow for processing them before polls open.
Republicans and Democrats alike, along with state and Milwaukee election leaders, warned in the days and weeks leading up to the election that the Milwaukee absentee ballots would be reported late and cause a huge influx of Democratic votes.
The reporting of those absentee ballots swung the 2020 presidential election to President Joe Biden, fueling baseless conspiracy theories that the election had been stolen from Donald Trump.
This year, the number of Democratic absentee votes in Milwaukee was not enough to sway the race for Vice President Kamala Harris, but it did put Baldwin over the top.
Hovde said before those ballots arrived that it “appeared” he had won and since last Wednesday, “numerous parties” had reached out to him about alleged inconsistencies.
But on election night, Republican strategists posted on X that Hovde was likely to fall behind Baldwin once the absentee votes from Milwaukee and other Democratic-heavy cities were posted. That is what happened.
To seek a recount, Hovde would have to request one within three days after the last county completed its canvass of the vote. Those are due by Nov. 19, but counties could complete the task sooner.
Hovde, a multimillionaire bank owner and real estate developer, first ran for Senate in 2012 but lost in the Republican primary. He was backed by Trump this year and poured millions of dollars of his own money into his campaign.
Wisconsin Watch is a nonprofit and nonpartisan newsroom. Subscribe to our newsletter to get our investigative stories and Friday news roundup.This story is published in partnership with The Associated Press.
After Democrat Tammy Baldwin won reelection to her U.S. Senate seat in Wisconsin, conspiracy theorists skeptical of the outcome pointed to a misleading results table to claim that there were more ballots cast than registered voters in some wards of Oak Creek, a Milwaukee suburb.
The table on Milwaukee County’s results website appeared to show four Oak Creek wards where more than 100% of registered voters cast ballots, including one with 1,256 registered voters and 1,271 ballots, and another with 1,006 registered voters and 1,019 ballots.
Turnout in Oak Creek “was impressive late at night for Senator Baldwin,” said a social media post from Seth Keshel, a prominent conspiracy theorist who has hundreds of thousands of followers across social media. The post, which was accompanied by an image with data from the county’s table, has already received hundreds of reactions and shares.
The table’s turnout percentages, which were based on numbers on the page showing the county’s unofficial results, were based on the number of registered voters these wards had the day before Election Day. They didn’t take into account the number of people who registered to vote on Election Day, City Clerk Catherine Roeske said.
Oak Creek hadn’t yet officially tallied the number of same-day registrants, but Roeske estimated that it was about 2,700.
After Votebeat told Michelle Hawley, Milwaukee County’s election director, about the increasingly viral claim, the county added a note to its results page to clarify that “the number of registered voters displayed are as of the day before the election. In Wisconsin, state law allows voters to register on election day, and as a result, it is possible for a ward to have over 100% participation.”
Turnout in many Milwaukee County municipalities was “super impressive,” Hawley said, surpassing most elections before it.
There’s another flaw in the premise of the social media posts that some kind of malfeasance in Oak Creek helped put Baldwin over the top: Her Republican opponent, Eric Hovde, is the one who carried the city. He got roughly 550 more votes than Baldwin — about 10,700 to 10,150 — according to unofficial results, and topped her total in one of the four wards that were listed with more than 100% turnout.
Oak Creek was among the last few municipalities in Wisconsin to report election results, along with neighboring Milwaukee, Green Bay, Oshkosh, and Racine. Conspiracy theorists often use late-arriving results that cause a swing as a pretext to circulate false claims about election fraud.
Before those cities’ numbers came in, early and unofficial results showed Hovde leading Baldwin by about 63,000 votes. Still, at that point, conservatives already recognized that Hovde was unlikely to win, given that the outstanding votes were from cities that mostly lean Democratic.
The largest chunk of still-unreported votes that would deliver Baldwin a win would come from Milwaukee, which she won by about 143,000 votes. Milwaukee County posted the city’s results at around 4:30 a.m., after a delay caused by a recount of absentee ballots.
At that time, Oak Creek’s results were still outstanding, even though it had far fewer ballots to count.
Oak Creek’s central counting site processed over 12,700 absentee ballots and was adequately staffed, Roeske said, but as work went late into the night, the city lost many of its poll workers to fatigue. She also cited rules that prevent election officials from pre-processing absentee ballots.
Some “amazing” staff lasted late into the night though, Roeske said.
Once Oak Creek and the other cities’ results were in, unofficial results showed Baldwin in front by just under 30,000 votes. The Associated Press called the race for Baldwin just before 1 p.m. on Wednesday. Hovde had not conceded as of early afternoon Thursday. Unofficial results showed him within the 1% margin to request a recount.
Alexander Shur is a reporter for Votebeat based in Wisconsin. Contact Shur at ashur@votebeat.org.
Boxes of ballots wait to be counted at Milwaukee's central count on Election Day 2024. (Henry Redman | Wisconsin Examiner)
U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin was declared the winner of Wisconsin’s Senate race by The Associate Press on Wednesday, earning her third term in the chamber. But her opponent, Republican businessman Eric Hovde, remains within the margin allowed under state law to request a recount.
Under state law, candidates who lose by a margin of less than 1% are able to request a recount of both the whole state and individual counties. If the margin is less than 0.25%, the state pays for the costs of the recount — which include staff labor, space, transportation, rentals and supplies — but if it’s more than 0.25% the candidate’s campaign pays for those costs. If the recount changes the result of an election, the counties and state are responsible for the costs.
In 2020, Donald Trump paid $3 million for recounts in Dane and Milwaukee counties.
While official results won’t be ready for weeks, unofficial results show Hovde trails Baldwin by 0.9%.
Wisconsin’s election certification process begins at the local level when boards of canvass in 1,850 communities meet to validate and certify the results of the election. The local boards of canvass, which consist of the municipal clerk and two appointed members from each community, must meet and certify the local election results no later than 9 a.m. on the first Monday after the election.
The certification then moves to the county level, where similarly constructed county boards of canvass meet to validate and certify the results. Results from the county boards of canvass must be transmitted to the Wisconsin Elections Commission within 14 days after a general election. This year that deadline falls on Nov. 19.
At each level, and for the final state certification, the action of the boards of canvass is ministerial, meaning the board has no discretion to not certify a result it doesn’t like. If all the votes were accounted for and legally cast, the board must certify the results.
After the county boards of canvass are complete and the final county sends its results to the state, a candidate within the recount margin can request a recount. Presidential candidates must file their request within one business day after the final county canvass. Other candidates, including Hovde, have three business days. That gives the Hovde campaign until Nov. 22 to request a full or partial recount.
When a recount is called, it is the responsibility of the county to hold it. The recount is a public process and in 2020 the recounts were livestreamed. Representatives from the two parties are involved in the process as election inspectors from each recounted county’s municipalities goes through the ballots again, making sure they were tabulated correctly. Each party is able to challenge individual ballots and each challenge is adjudicated by a bipartisan recount court.
“It’s a very, very public process that has a lot of involvement from the party representatives and the political parties as well,” WEC Administrator Meagan Wolfe said at a Wednesday news conference.
Counties have three days to begin their recount after it is ordered and a recount must be completed by Nov. 30 because the state’s deadline to certify the election results is Dec. 1.
U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin, Democrat of Wisconsin (Screenshot | Democratic National Convention YouTube channel)
Democratic U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin has won a third term, defeating Republican California bank owner and part-time Wisconsin resident Eric Hovde in a contest characterized by relentless attacks on the part of both candidates.
With 99% of the ballots counted, Baldwin won with 49.4% of the vote and a margin of just under 30,000 votes, less than 1 percentage point ahead of Hovde, who finished with 48.5%. The Associated Press called the race for Baldwin at 12:42 p.m. Wednesday.
Baldwin declared victory eight hours earlier. “It is clear that the voters have spoken and our campaign has won,” she said in a statement released at 4:30 a.m. Wednesday.
Baldwin built on a continuing track record of success across Wisconsin, including carrying counties generally dominated by Republicans. In this year’s campaign, she also became the first statewide Democratic candidate to receive the endorsement of the Wisconsin Farm Bureau.
Tuesday’s election concluded a grueling campaign dominated by attacks in which Baldwin started with a lead of about 7 percentage points that dwindled in the final months.
Democrats early on painted Hovde, who was raised in Madison, as a California carpetbagger, pointing to his ownership of a bank based in Orange County and a multimillion-dollar mansion in Laguna Beach. Team Baldwin also highlighted numerous past statements from Hovde that they portrayed as denigrating nursing home residents, college students and farmers, among others.
Hovde, meanwhile, characterized Baldwin as a career politician with little to show for her two terms in the Senate and a tenure that included more than a decade in Congress and before that in the Wisconsin Assembly and the Dane County Board.
Baldwin was also likely helped by one of her core messages, focusing on reproductive rights in the post-Roe era. Baldwin has authored a bill to codify federal protections for abortion. Her campaign highlighted Hovde’s past anti-abortion statements and his championing the 2022 U.S. Supreme Court ruling that ended the federal right to abortion that had been declared in the landmark decision Roe v. Wade.
U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis., has backed efforts to reduce prescription drug prices:
Cosponsored 2024 legislation to cap annual out-of-pocket costs at $2,000 per individual and $4,000 per family for people with private health insurance. No action has been taken.
Sent letters in January 2024 along with other senators to drug manufacturers demanding information on “exorbitant” asthma inhaler prices.
Sponsored 2023 legislation to require drug manufacturers to provide details of and justification for certain price increases. No action has been taken.
Supported the Inflation Reduction Act, which became law in 2022. It requires Medicare to negotiate the price of certain drugs.
Baldwin’s challenger in the Nov. 5, 2024, election, Republican Eric Hovde, stated that Baldwin “always talks about, ‘I’m going to lower drug prices.’ She’s done nothing on that.”
Average U.S. prescription drug prices are 2.78 times higher than in 33 other nations, the RAND think tank reported in February.
This fact brief is responsive to conversations such as this one.
Former President Donald Trump speaks at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee | Photo by James Gould
The weekend before Election Day, former President Donald Trump brought his campaign to Milwaukee.
During a Friday night rally at the Fiserv Forum, the same venue where Trump formally accepted the Republican Party’s presidential nomination just a few months ago, Trump told the crowd that, if he’s elected again, he will bring America back to the “golden age.”
“America will be bigger, better, bolder, richer, safer and stronger than ever before,” Trump said.
Trump slammed the current state of the economy and also talked about his plan to impose high tariffs on imports. “You’re going to become so rich with the word tariff,” he told the crowd. That was met with a massive cheer.
The former president declared that his opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, “has a low IQ.”
During the rally a section of the crowd in the upper deck began to shout that they could not hear what was being said on stage.
A clearly frustrated Trump ripped the microphone away from the mic stand and yelled, “Do you want to see me knock the hell out of people backstage?”
“I am up here seething. I’m working my ass off with this stupid mic,” Trump added. “I’m blowing out my left arm, now I’m blowing out my right arm and I’m blowing out my damn throat, too, because these stupid people.”
After the mic issues appeared to be fixed, Trump claimed he won Wisconsin twice, although actually, after winning the state in the 2016 presidential election he lost to President Joe Biden in 2020.
John Kettman displays his “Trumpkin” at the Milwaukee Trump rally | Photo by James Gould
John Kettman, a fan of Trump who attended the rally, held a pumpkin with the former president’s face on it while he waited to get into the Fiserv Forum for the rally. He called the prop a “Trumpkin.”
Kettman said the “middle-class people” are the ones suffering the most in America.
When it comes to foreign policy, Kettman said that Harris “can’t be trusted” and that Trump is the man who can “deal with” North Korea and Russia.
Another Trump voter who waited to enter the rally was Fernando Puente.
“All the polls say it’s coming out tight,” Puente said of the presidential election.“I’m here on the ground, I see that it’s going to be a landslide, Trump is going to win big.”
Puente added that he wasn’t always a big fan of Trump before 2016. He said he had felt Trump was “arrogant” and disliked the way he talked, but that all changed for him when Trump started talking about “the border and inflation.”
Wisconsin Republicans who spoke at the rally included former Govs. Scott Walker and Tommy Thompson, U.S. Reps. Scott Fitzgerald and Bryan Steil and candidate for U.S. Senate Eric Hovde, who is challenging incumbent Wisconsin Democratic U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin.
“This election is so consequential,” Hovde said from the stage, contrasting “what President Trump and I want to do versus what Kamala Harris and Tammy Baldwin want to do.” Trump and Hovde want to “make America great again” and “restore the American Dream,” Hovde said, while the Democrats “bankrupted our country, causing the worst inflation in 40 years. … jeopardized our safety by defunding the police and opening our southern borders,” and “divided our country … by gender, by race, by socio economic class, by religion.”
Senate candidate Eric Hovde speaks at the Trump rally in Milwaukee | Photo by James Gould
When Trump took the stage he praised Hovde, calling him “a great guy,” and joked, “He’s a great-looking guy, too, sometimes I say maybe he’d be better off without that mustache. I’m not sure.”
In recent TV ads Hovde’s campaign has been attacking Baldwin’s girlfriend, highlighting her work as an investment adviser on Wall Street and the couple’s same-sex relationship.
Hovde’s campaign has repeatedly mentioned Maria Brisbane, referring to her as Baldwin’s “life partner,” although Baldwin publicly refers to Brisbane as her girlfriend.
While Trump spoke, Harris held a simultaneous rally in Milwaukee just over five miles away at the Wisconsin State Fair Exposition Center. Harris spoke for 24 minutes, according to NBC News, while Trump gave a 90 minute speech. She described Trump as “increasingly unstable,” and said if elected he would walk into the Oval Office with an “enemies list” while Harris would walk in with a “to-do list.”
Cortaisha Thompson knocks on doors on Milwaukee's southside. (Photo | Isiah Holmes)
A strong, warm fall wind accompanied Cortaisha Thompson as she walked through a south-side Milwaukee neighborhood. “I like to be out talking in the community just like, interacting with people,” the 26-year-old told Wisconsin Examiner. About 20 canvassers from Leaders Igniting Transformation (LIT), including Thompson, have spent months knocking on doors throughout Milwaukee ensuring voters have what they need in the election on Tuesday, Nov. 5.
Calmly walking up a staircase leading to a front door, Thompson knocked and waited. After about 30 seconds without an answer, she left a piece of voter education literature in the door and moved on. At the next house a woman answered the door, saying that she planned to vote on Election Day, but that she didn’t know that early voting was an option. Early in-person voting at polling places in Milwaukee began on Oct. 22 and will run until Nov. 3.
A voting ward sign in Milwaukee County. (Photo | Isiah Holmes)
Whether anyone answers the door when she knocks is a toss up, Thompson said. In some neighborhoods, doors stay shut the majority of the time. Sometimes it depends on the time of day and whether most people are at school or work. Thompson, who lives closer to Racine, has also noticed how different neighborhoods in Milwaukee have different vibes. On the South Side, canvassing walks can be quieter. When Thompson canvassed the North Side, she encountered more residents willing to talk about their political views.
“I feel like I get more contacts and more energized people that’s willing to open the door and actually talk,” said Thompson said of North Side neighborhoods. Since LIT’s goal is simply voter education and not candidate endorsement, Thompson doesn’t try to convince people to vote one way or another. Especially in Milwaukee, one of America’s most segregated cities, Thompson sees how people can feel pigeon-holed. “They feel like they have to vote for Trump, or they have to vote for Kamala,” said Thompson. “I just tell them like, we’re not here to tell you who to vote for or anything. We just want to make sure you get out to vote, and get your opinion out there.”
Signs for both former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris sprinkled the diverse neighborhood. Some homes were adorned with colorful decorations. As Thompson approached a couple of doors, where no one answered, she noticed local police association stickers. She said she enjoyed her time in Milwaukee, and even is considering moving to the city.
Each day she canvassed a different neighborhood or part of town. When Thompson canvassed in wealthier neighborhoods with residents “in those super big houses,” people often reacted with hostility to LIT, she said, “cussing at us and stuff like that.” On the South Side she felt more welcome.
Periodically, Thompson would stop to check her phone to see what house is next on the list. Every canvasser is expected to knock on 175 doors a day. A couple months ago, the daily metric shot up to 275, which limited the amount of time canvassers could spend at each door. LIT has a goal to knock on 650,000 doors before election day, and has already reached more than 620,000.
Voting rights activists and others gather at the Midtown Center in Milwaukee on the first day of early voting in July 2022. (Photo | Isiah Holmes)
Thompson sees “a big mix of support” for different candidates neighborhood by neighborhood. “I haven’t gotten that yet, an area that’s strictly for her, or strictly with him,” said Thompson. A Marquette University poll released on Wednesday shows Harris and Trump in a virtual dead heat, 50% to -49% among likely voters.
Similarly, the race between Democratic U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin and Republican challenger Eric Hovde showed Baldwin leading 51% to 49%, a big drop from the seven-point lead Baldwin held in September.
Many voters Thompson has encountered also seem squarely focused on the presidential election. There’s also the Republican-backed constitutional amendments on the ballot this year, which LIT is also informing voters of. “There’s people that say they don’t even go out and vote for no election if it’s not the presidential one,” said Thompson. LIT heard the same thing from voters when knocking on doors for school referendums, mayoral races, and other elections. “None of it.”
That attitude can change, though, when voters are asked about issues instead of about candidates. Thompson recalled speaking to a woman about health care access. “Her daughter got into a car accident and was in a coma and all type of stuff and they didn’t have the money to pay for her treatment,” said Thompson. “And then she started crying talking to me about it so I was like, kind of sad about it…There’s really people out here affected by not having that type of stuff. Majorly affected.” Reproductive rights was another recurring issue Thompson has heard while canvassing. Shortly after telling the story Thompson walked into a local convenience store for some water. When the store manager he realized Thompson was out canvassing voters, he offered the water for free.
Prior to getting involved in LIT, Thompson said she never paid much attention to politics. Older relatives of hers, however, were politically active and pushed her to get involved. When she did, and then started working with LIT, her whole perspective changed. “They bring a lot of stuff to your attention to make you realize, like, your vote really matters, and it really counts,” said Thompson. “Especially in times like this where it’s like if it don’t go the way you want it to go, you don’t know how it’s going to go afterward.”
This article has been edited to update the numbers of doors knocked by LIT, and to correct a misspelled name.
Republican Eric Hovde supports raising the retirement age for receiving Social Security, but only for younger Americans, despite misleading attacks on him.
Hovde is running Nov. 5, 2024, against U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis.
Hovde said Oct. 21: “Nobody who’s on Social Security or heading to Social Security with any reasonable time frame should have Social Security touched.”
But because life expectancy has increased since Social Security was created, the retirement age should be raised for younger people. “You could start someplace in the 40s,” Hovde said, reiterating previous campaign comments.
Retirees can start receiving partial Social Security benefits at 62; the age for receiving full benefits varies.
Baldwin in an ad and on social media has attacked Hovde without saying his proposed eligibility change would apply only to younger workers.
Advocates say raising the retirement age would protect Social Security, which is projected to remain solvent only through 2033.
This fact brief is responsive to conversations such as this one.
The latest Marquette Law School poll released Wednesday found that the race between Vice President Harris and former President Donald Trump remains extremely close in Wisconsin.
Harris received 50% of support among likely voters, while Trump received 49%. The previous Marquette poll, conducted in late September, found that Harris received 52% of support and Trump received 48% among likely voters.
The poll, which was conducted between Oct. 16 and 24, surveyed 834 Wisconsin registered voters of whom 753 are considered likely to vote based on 2016 voting records.
Charles Franklin, Marquette Law School Poll director
“The race has tightened a little bit,” Charles Franklin, the director of the Marquette Law School poll, said in a public forum where he presented the poll results Wednesday.
When third party candidates including Robert F. Kennedy and Jill Stein were included in the poll, Harris received 46% of support while Trump received 44% of support. Franklin said voters who are undecided and leaning toward voting for a third-party contribute to the uncertainty in this election.
“They could so easily tip the scales one way or the other,” Franklin said. “If I haven’t made it clear by now, it should not surprise anyone if Donald Trump wins, and it should not surprise anyone if Kamala Harris wins. The polling averages for the state… are just so close that polling is not going to help us at all to have confidence in who is the likely winner.”
The poll also found a large gender gap among voters with men favoring Trump 56% to 44% and women favoring Harris 57% to 43%.
Enthusiasm is also high with 66% of those polled saying they are very enthusiastic. Democrats had a slight enthusiasm advantage with 75% of Democrats saying they are “very enthusiastic” to vote compared with 66% of Republicans.
In the Wisconsin U.S. Senate race, Democratic U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin, who is running for her third term in office, polls slightly ahead of Republican Eric Hovde, a banker from California.
Among likely voters Baldwin received 51% of support while Hovde received 49%. The results are a big change from the last poll in September, which found that Baldwin had a lead of 7 percentage points over Hovde.
Baldwin was seen favorably by 45% of poll respondents, while her unfavorable rating was 50%; 5% said they haven’t heard enough to form an opinion. Hovde was seen as favorable by 36% and unfavorable by 48% of those polled, with 15% saying they haven’t heard enough.
An ad by the liberal super PAC WinSenate mischaracterizes what Republican Eric Hovde said about beer sales.
Hovde is running Nov. 5, 2024, against U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis.
The ad says: “How do you know a politician’s not from around here? How about calling for a ban on beer sales? … And he actually said that.”
The ad alludes to a March Rolling Stone article. It reported Hovde in 2017 responded to a question about legalizing marijuana by saying:
“So, if we just decriminalize (marijuana)? Fine. … Frankly, it should have happened with alcohol. … Alcohol has a lot of negative byproducts. If somebody wanted to distill it, drink it. Fine, go ahead. But, sadly, as we know, it’s produced a lot of negative byproducts. … And saying that, I think the cat’s out of the — or, the horse is out of the barn, and it’s going to be hard to put back.”
This fact brief is responsive to conversations such as this one.
Sen. Tammy Baldwin and Eric Hovde in the 2024 Senate campaign debate | Screenshot via Youtube
This year’s race to represent Wisconsin in the U.S. Senate presents a stark contrast between incumbent U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin and challenger Eric Hovde.
Baldwin, a two-term senator who previously served in Congress for more than a decade and in state and local office before that, faces Hovde, a banker whose only political experience was a failed Republican primary run for the same seat 12 years ago.
Baldwin points to the results of her lifelong work in politics — successful legislation addressing health care coverage, veterans, manufacturing and human rights, and also ambitious measures that have not passed yet.
Hovde is dismissive of Baldwin’s record and depicts his business background as an asset he can use in Washington to benefit Wisconsin. Combative during their only debate on Friday, Oct. 18, as well as in public interviews, he has taken a leaf from the playbook of former President Donald Trump, both in style and in the subject matter that he highlights.
Lilly Goren, Carroll University political science professor
Whether control of the Senate remains with the Democrats or shifts to the Republicans could turn on the outcome of the Wisconsin race, one of a handful getting close scrutiny in this election.
Negative campaigning has been commonplace for decades, but it’s especially prominent in the Baldwin-Hovde race.
“There’s a lot of mud being slung,” says Lilly Goren, political science professor at Carroll University in Waukesha. “It’s not as if we haven’t had mudslinging in Wisconsin politics before, but it feels like there’s a little bit more going on.”
Heavy attacks
From the moment Hovde entered the race, Democrats have pounced on the bank owner’s California connections, starting with his Orange County mansion and his high profile in the Southern California community, where a local publication named him among the county’s “most influential people.” In press releases, the Democratic Party of Wisconsin has taken to calling him Eric Hovde (R-Laguna Beach).
Hovde defends himself as a Wisconsin native and still a legal resident who maintains his voting registration in Madison. At the debate he pulled out a utility bill to prove he has a local address.
Democrats have pushed for Hovde to declare that if elected he would remove himself from SunWest bank, which operates in California but moved its headquarters a few years ago to Utah. In September, the Wisconsin State Journal reported that Hovde said he would “step away” from the bank and was considering whether to put his assets in a blind trust if he goes to Washington.
Hovde, meanwhile, has pushed back with accusations that Baldwin’s partner, Maria Brisbane, an investment and wealth management adviser, puts the senator in a conflict of interest in connection with Baldwin’s Senate oversight roles.
The Senate’s ethics rules don’t address such a relationship, however. When Hovde raised the matter during the debate, Baldwin retorted that “Eric Hovde should stay out of my personal life, and I think I speak for most Wisconsin women that he should stay out of all of our personal lives.”
Reproductive rights
That response alluded to an issue that Baldwin has highlighted repeatedly: abortion and reproductive rights. During a rally with vote canvassers earlier in October, Baldwin recalled that Hovde “celebrated when the Dobbs decision came down” in June 2022 overturning the nationwide right to abortion enshrined in the U.S. Supreme Court’s Roe v. Wade decision a half-century ago.
Sen. Tammy Baldwin mingles with volunteer canvassers preparing to go out and knock on doors on Friday, Oct. 4, 2024 (Erik Gunn | Wisconsin Examiner)
Referring to positions Hovde took in his 2012 GOP primary campaign, she added, “Previously he said he was 100% against abortion, and we have to take him at his word.”
Hovde has endorsed the Dobbs decision outcome for leaving the legality of abortion up to individual states. But he has also appeared to soften somewhat his earlier statements of opposition, saying several times, including in last week’s debate, that “women should have a right to decide early on in their pregnancy,” but not defining what period of time that would involve.
Under Roe, abortion could not be regulated by the state during the first trimester. Later in pregnancy, abortion restrictions were permitted.
During the debate, Hovde accused Baldwin of supporting abortion late in pregnancy, “where a baby can be born healthy and alive,” calling such abortions “unconscionable.” Baldwin quickly shot back, “Eric Hovde, that does not happen in America and it’s very clear that he has never read Roe v. Wade.”
Baldwin has authored legislation to codify the Roe decision. “I’m pushing to have that be the law of the land. Your rights and freedom should not depend on your ZIP code or the state in which you live,” she said.
Notwithstanding the wide range of other subjects that have surfaced in the race, Goren, the Carroll University professor, said in an interview that she’ll be watching how abortion and reproductive rights in the post-Dobbs era continue to play out at the ballot box.
“This is an issue area that both campaigns are focusing on in different ways,” she said. Wisconsin’s 1849 feticide ban — interpreted as an abortion ban for the first year and a half after Roe was rolled back until a Dane County circuit judge ruled that it did not apply to elective abortions — has given the topic new urgency for many women in the state.
Farm bill clash
When asked whether he would support passing the 2023 farm bill during the debate, Hovde answered, “Well, I’m not an expert on the farm bill because I’m not in the U.S. Senate at this point.” Then he launched into a call for farm bills “to get back to farmers” and to address the “regulations that Senator Baldwin and her allies continue to push on them.”
Milwaukee Journal Sentinel columnist Dan Bice called Hovde’s answer “the worst moment” of the debate.
For Baldwin, it offered a target that allowed her to promote her recent endorsement by the Wisconsin Farm Bureau — the GOP-leaning group’s first endorsement of a Democrat in nearly two decades.
Wisconsin farmers have told her “they’re very eager to have Congress pass a new farm bill,” she said. The hold-up, she added, was that the Republican-controlled U.S. House has “basically eviscerated nutrition programs. Farmers support nutrition programs because it means purchasing their goods.”
Citing one of Hovde’s key talking points — calling for a cutback in federal spending to 2019 levels — she added that it would “cut the U.S. Department of Agriculture by 30% — that is not standing up for our farmers.”
Incumbent’s resume
Challengers typically deploy “career politician” as an epithet, but for Baldwin the term is both accurate and a point of pride. She readily traces some of her key legislative victories through that history.
Daniel Connery, left, Dane County Veterans Service Office director, talks to Sen. Tammy Baldwin at a round table discussion about the PACT Act in May. (Wisconsin Examiner photo)
Earlier this year, marking the passage in 2022 of the PACT Act, giving veterans exposed to toxic chemicals in conflicts going back to the Vietnam War greater access to federal benefits, Baldwin recalled her introduction to the issue through a staffer when she was still in the U.S. House.
Likewise, she frequently points to the key role she played in shaping the Affordable Care Act (ACA).
“It was my provision that allowed young people to stay on their parents’ health insurance till they turned 26,” Baldwin said during the debate, repeating a campaign talking point.
Among her most recent trophies is language in the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act that for the first time empowers Medicare to negotiate the price of prescription drugs. The act also imposes caps on the out-of-pocket expenses Medicare recipients must bear and limits their cost of insulin to $35.
“We need to build upon the Affordable Care Act, and we need to build upon our efforts to negotiate lower prescription drug prices,” Baldwin said during Friday’s debate.
While health care has been among her top concerns, she also directs attention to other parts of her lawmaker’s resume.
Economy and rebuilding U.S. industry
When President Joe Biden’s administration and allies in Congress drew up the CHIPS and Science Act to support the return of technical manufacturing from overseas to the U.S., particularly in the computer chips that gave the legislation its nickname, Baldwin turned to a 2019 Brookings Institution industrial policy report.
Drawing on that document she pitched the inclusion of a “technology hub” program that would direct federal funds to support the development of specialized advanced domestic production projects.
After the bill was enacted, the Wisconsin Economic Development Corp. worked with Bio-Forward, a consortium of industries and institutions in the state, to propose a tech hub focused on the emerging science of tailoring medical diagnosis and treatment to the individual genetic profiles of patients. Baldwin championed the Wisconsin entry for a competitive tech hub grant, then joined an event in August toshow off one of the participating businesses.
Those and other major initiatives that emerged from Congress and the White House in the first two years of the Biden administration exemplified a vision that government has a role to play working with the private sector for economic development.
The CHIPS and Science Act’s objective to revitalize domestic tech manufacturing was in the service of national and economic security in the U.S. “That takes a government investment to be able to do that,” said Lisa Johnson, Bio-Forward’s executive director at the August event.
She also has introduced her share of bills that haven’t made it out of even one house of Congress, but in some of those she’s found a measure of victory. In 2023, the Securities and Exchange Commission finalized a rule aimed at curbing stealth investors who try to grab control of struggling companies out from under the owners and management in order to make a quick buck.
The rule had its origins in legislation that Baldwin sponsored in 2017 after the shutdown of a paper mill in Wisconsin’s Marathon County led the village where it was located to dissolve. While the bill didn’t advance, some of its language made it into the new SEC rule.
Baldwin’s office enlisted the support of the mill’s displaced executive, who praised the persistence and patience of the senator and her staff in seeing what became the new rule through to enactment.
The story reflects Baldwin’s success at allying with a wide range of constituents with a wide range of concerns — as well as with lawmakers across the aisle, like Republican Sen. David Perdue of Georgia, with whom she’d cosponsored the original legislative proposal.
“I fight for Wisconsin and only Wisconsin,” Baldwin told the debate moderators, “which means I’ll work with Republicans or Democrats, Republican administrations or Democratic administrations — to get the job done for Wisconsin but also stand up to them.”
Tying Baldwin to Biden
Hovde’s campaign has been largely built on three arguments: that the major federal legislation signed by Biden and championed by Baldwin has been not just ineffective but harmful; that immigration is out of control and hurting the country; and that Baldwin has been an ineffective politician with nothing to show for her 12 years in office.
Along with those critiques, he’s presented himself — the scion of developers in Wisconsin and the owner of a $3 billion bank in California, where he owns a $7 million home in Laguna Beach — as an experienced business operator who can bring a fresh face to Washington.
Wisconsin Senate candidate Eric Hovde speaks at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee in July. (Baylor Spears | Wisconsin Examiner)
In his arguments on the economy and on immigration, Hovde has been largely in step with Trump. Hovde, who received Trump’s enthusiastic endorsement, spoke from the stage at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, even before handily winning his party’s nomination as the designated Senate candidate, and has appeared at numerous other Trump events.
In those public appearances, including last week’s debate, Hovde has attacked the incumbent almost constantly — shaking his head as she answered the questions posted by Wisconsin journalists at the event, then accusing her of lying repeatedly without offering specifics.
Wisconsin Democrats, meanwhile, have run TV ads citing more than a dozen instances in which independent fact-checkers have accused Hovde of lying in ads and public statements.
Hovde has railed against the signature bills Biden helped shape and signed — pandemic relief, the bipartisan infrastructure law and the Inflation Reduction Act.
At the debate Baldwin used Hovde’s opposition to the latter law to charge that Hovde “opposes efforts to negotiate the price of prescription drugs, saving patients and Medicare money.”
Provisions capping the out-of-pocket drug costs for Medicare patients and forcing drug companies to negotiate prices were part of the Inflation Reduction Act, she observed.
“My opponent would have voted against that measure. He’s said that many times,” Baldwin said. “We are seeing real reductions in prices that will save both patients money but will also extend the solvency of Medicare.”
Hovde took sharp offense to the assertion that he opposes negotiating drug prices, without addressing his opposition to the law that has made drug price negotiation possible. “I think drug prices are wildly too high and I’ll actually do something about it,” he said, without specifying what his response might be.
Inflation and immigration
Hovde has zeroed in on the 2021-22 inflation spike, blaming it primarily on the Biden legislation. “That’s why inflation got ignited,” he said at Friday’s debate, blaming Baldwin for “reckless spending.”
In addition to attacking Democrats on the economy, Hovde has echoed Trump’s campaign in criticizing Biden for ending a series of Trump executive orders restricting migrants.
Eric Hovde speaks during a WisPolitics.com lunch and interview in August 2024. (Erik Gunn | Wisconsin Examiner)
At Friday’s debate, Hovde threw out figures for migrants in Biden’s first three years in office that added up to 10 million — a number that far exceeds any official estimates from federal agencies or non-government organizations that track immigration policy. He added, “We don’t know how many come in but it’s flooded our streets with fentanyl. We have criminals that have entered into our country and it’s created a humanitarian crisis.”
Political ads supporting Hovde have attacked Baldwin on the immigration issue.
According to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, however, cartels mainly seek to move the drug across the border with the help of U.S. citizens.
Baldwin has endorsed a bipartisan bill that the Biden administration reached with a group of conservative Republican senators but that the U.S. House Republican leaders killed at Trump’s urging.
Hovde has defended killing the bill, calling it a sham. “It wasn’t going to change any of the asylum laws or immigration laws at all,” he said.
Baldwin countered that the defunct legislation was “the toughest border bill that we’ve seen in years,” with provisions to add 1,500 border patrol agents along the Southern U.S. border. It also included technology to scan incoming vehicles for fentanyl.
Prof. Aaron Weinschenk, UW-Green Bay
She charged that Trump, with Hovde’s support, “wanted the political issue” of the immigration controversy. “They wanted the chaos,” she said. “They didn’t want a solution.”
With the attacks and counter-attacks, what started as a 7-point lead for Baldwin in the polls has narrowed considerably, with some polls showing the two neck and neck.
Despite that, University of Wisconsin-Green Bay political scientist Aaron Weinschenk says he believes a Hovde upset is unlikely. Baldwin easily won her last reelection bid in 2018, including in Republican areas like rural Richland and Lafayette counties, which Trump carried in the last two elections but which voted for Baldwin by more than 10 points.
Baldwin “is pretty popular in Wisconsin,” Weinschenk said. “She’s like threaded the needle in appealing to people and you know different parts of the state that maybe you’d think of as being pretty Republican. It might be narrower than previous races, but I’d be surprised if she lost.”
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